What caused the fatal sinking of the superyacht Bayesian?

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One of the world’s largest sailing superyachts sank in high winds off Sicily on Monday, with UK tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch among those missing.

Camper & Nicholsons, which managed the 56-metre British-flagged Bayesian yacht, said it “encountered severe weather and subsequently sank” near Palermo.

Owned by the Lynch family, the boat had 10 crew and 12 guests on board, 15 of whom have been rescued, including Lynch’s wife, Angela Bacares. The chef’s body was found near the wreckage, while six other people — including Lynch and his 18-year old daughter — are still missing.

The rapid sinking of such a large, modern and well-equipped yacht due to bad weather, rather than as a result of a collision, raises concerns over marine safety as extreme weather events occur with more frequency and intensity.

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Why did the superyacht sink?

The yacht is likely to have been caught in a waterspout, a form of tornado, with Italian coastguards describing the wind as very strong. While bad weather was forecast, it was not expected to be so severe. They also said Bayesian was anchored when it was struck by the wind. 

Karsten Borner, the skipper of a nearby boat, was quoted by Reuters as saying he was using his motor to maintain control of his own vessel and to avoid a collision with Bayesian when the weather hit. Bayesian “went flat [with the mast] on the water, and then went down”, he said.

His comment suggests that it was the combination of high winds and Bayesian’s 72-metre mast — the world’s tallest aluminium mast, according to manufacturers Perini Navi — that triggered the disaster.

Schematic showing the scale of the Sailing Yacht Bayesian by comparing it to the size of a London bus

Even with no sails up, a boat with a tall mast has a lot of “windage”, or surface area exposed to the wind, that can tip the vessel over in a storm. The boat may have heeled over so far that it took on water through open windows, hatches or companionways.

According to Perini Navi, Bayesian had a so-called lifting keel, a system for reducing the depth of the keel — otherwise nearly 10m — for easier entrance to shallow harbours. If the keel were for some reason in the raised position rather than fully extended, that would compromise the boat’s stability in a strong wind. 

Skippers of sailing yachts with exceptionally high masts typically aim to move out of harm’s way if strong winds are forecast.

Should we blame climate change?

Climate change is likely to have been at least a contributing factor in the Mediterranean’s unsettled and sometimes violent weather this summer. The Mediterranean is a favoured cruising ground for superyachts during the northern hemisphere summer — in winter, the wealthy prefer the Caribbean or the Indian Ocean — because the weather is typically warm and sunny, and storms are rare. 

Meteorological experts have long predicted that climate change and the heating-up of oceans will help trigger more extreme weather events, including floods, droughts and more severe hurricanes.

Last Thursday, the Mediterranean reached a median temperature of 28.9C — its highest surface temperature on record — and similar records are being broken in other seas. June was the 15th consecutive month that global sea temperatures hit a record high and forecasters predict the warmer waters may fuel an intense Atlantic hurricane season.

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Will disasters at sea occur more often?

While design improvements and safety regulations have made even the smallest boats more safe, the potential dangers posed by bad weather are increasing in line with the rising number of pleasure vessels at sea.

Last week, a sudden and exceptionally strong thunderstorm with wind squalls blowing at up to 53 knots, or about 100km/h, swept over the Balearic Islands of Ibiza and Formentera, driving several sailing and motor yachts to crash on to the shore. Among those damaged and grounded but later recovered was a luxury, 30-metre vessel made by the Monaco-based Wally Yachts.

The cause was a thunderstorm known as a “Dana”, a Spanish acronym for depresión aislada en niveles altos or isolated high-altitude depression. The bad weather also caused serious flooding in Mallorca and Menorca to the north.

How can boat makers and skippers help avoid more deaths?

The weather in the Mediterranean is often notoriously unpredictable and prone to sudden, unforecast gales — unlike the north Atlantic, where weather shifts are usually signalled days in advance by changing air pressure and cloud formations visible to the naked eye.

Safety at sea depends largely on two factors: the seaworthiness of the boat, and the skill and experience of the captain and crew. 

Bayesian
Bayesian had the world’s tallest aluminium mast © Perini Navi Handout/EPA

Modern boats — Bayesian was built in 2008 and refurbished four years ago — are normally built to high safety standards and equipped with electronic navigation and communications systems, as well as standard emergency gear such as life vests. Common accidents include people falling overboard, fires on board and accidental groundings or collisions — not sinking in bad weather.

In the words of one Italian coastguard officer, Bayesian’s holidaymakers and crew were just “in the wrong place at the wrong time”. 

Visual and data team: Alan Smith, Aditi Bhandhari, Ian Bott and Jana Tauschinski

Credit: Source link

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