2022 British Open modeling strategy, odds, picks, field

We’ve arrived at the year’s final major on the men’s golf calendar.

The world’s best will descend upon the Old Course at St. Andrew’s for the first time since 2015 in order to decide which player will join Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Matt Fitzpatrick as the year’s major champions. As it stands, Rory McIlroy (+1000) is the favorite to lift the Claret Jug, while Scheffler (+1200) and Jon Rahm (+1400) feature prominently on the odds board.

But before we dive into any picks for the week, we begin as always with my statistical modeling strategy for the 2022 Open Championship. Unlike past majors, this model is quite simplified and gets down to the core stats that (should) lead to success at the Old Course.

In addition to the eight core stats you’re about to read, I’ve also added one qualifier — “easy” fairways to hit — to help further sort the field. In addition to the five “core” stats, I’ve supplemented my model with three “correlated” stats — SG: Short Game (10 percent emphasis), GIRs Gained (5 percent emphasis) and Proximity: 125-150 yards (5 percent emphasis) — to add an extra layer of specificity.

Without further delay, let’s dive in. All stats are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.

Open Championship advanced golf stats, modeling strategy

Key Stat #1 – Driving Distance (15 percent emphasis)

Much like last week’s Scottish Open — which was won by Schauffele — accuracy isn’t a huge factor off the tee at the Old Course.

According to datagolf.com, driving distance carries an 80 percent correlation with finishing position while driving accuracy only carries a 30 percent correlation. As compared to the Renaissance Club, that represents a 20 percent decline in driving accuracy correlation, so bettors won’t necessarily want to rule out big hitters that struggled in Scotland.

Plus, in researching past Opens at St. Andrew’s, this stat backs up the previous assertion that distance matters at a course that measures about 7,300 yards. In 2015, the top-five in driving distance all finished tied for 10th or better. Shrink the sample down to the top three players in this metric and bettors will find all finished tied for 6th or better.

Thus, big hitters should bring a huge advantage to the Old Course, especially if the current weather forecast holds and heavy winds aren’t a factor.

Here are the leaders in driving distance across the last 12 qualifying rounds:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+5000)
2. Wyndham Clark (+30000)
3. Cameron Young (+6600)
4. Dustin Johnson (+2800)
5. Rory McIlroy (+1000)

Key Stat #2 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (20 percent emphasis)

Regular readers of this column will feel like I’m beating a dead horse when it comes to this statistic, but this carries sizable importance just like any other event.

Despite the fact bettors aren’t able to glean any shotlink data for past Open Championships, there are stats we can use to intuit this metric’s importance. For example, Zach Johnson — who won the last Open Championship played at this track — finished second in the field in good drives gained — defined as when a player either hits the fairway or hits the green from the rough.

Although we’re making an assumption players hit the green from the fairway based on that stat, Johnson is widely regarded as a great approach player, so we’ll assume hit SG: approach data would have been strong. Plus, the last two winners at this major — Morikawa and Shane Lowry — led the field in this category when that data was available.

Furthermore, datagolf.com cites this stat as carrying a 70 percent correlation with finishing position, another reason this metric carries particular emphasis.

Here are the SG: approach leaders over their last 12 qualifying rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+1000)
2. Xander Schauffele (+1600)
3. Harold Varner III (+10000)
4. Shane Lowry (+2500)
5. Viktor Hovland (+3300)

Key Stat #3 – Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s (15 percent emphasis)

The Old Course at St. Andrew’s is a bit odd in the sense that it’s a Par-72 with only two par 5’s and two par 3’s.

Thus, SG: Par 4’s becomes an incredibly important stat this week as players will face that type of hole on 14 holes. Unsurprisingly, the 2015 Open Championship saw an extreme correlation between finishing position and par-4 efficiency. Jordan Spieth led the field for the week in this category and finished tied for fourth in the tournament.

In fact, only one player who finished 10th or better in Par 4 Efficiency in 2015 finished outside the top-10. Expand the sample to include the top-20 players in Par 4 Efficiency that year and bettors will find only two players finished 20th or better in this category but finished worse than that position on the final leaderboard.

As for the overall difficulty of these 14 holes, it trends more on the treacherous side. Five of the 14 holes rank amongst the six most difficult holes on the course while four of 14 rank amongst the six easiest holes historically.

With that said, here are the 12-round leaders in SG: Par 4’s entering the tournament:

1. Xander Schauffele (+1600)
2. Rory McIlroy (+1000)
3. Corey Conners (+8000)
4. Shane Lowry (+2500)
5. Cameron Young (+6600)

Key Stat #4 – Birdies or Better Gained (15 percent emphasis)

Historically, the Old Course has surrendered quite a few birdies and winners have posted incredibly low scores.

Dating back to Tiger Woods’ win at the 2000 Open Championship at St. Andrew’s, each of the four winners at this track has managed to reach at least -14 with the Big Cat posting a record -19 score amongst the nine years the Open has featured at this course.

Just in the most recent year St. Andrew’s hosted the Open, winner Zach Johnson finished third in this category for the week. In fact, the five players who led the field in this metric finished T4th-T12th-1st-T2nd-T2nd. There’s also a chance that this particular Open could see a much higher winning score — as mentioned earlier, there’s not a lot of wind in the forecast as of this writing — so this stat could see its importance skyrocket.

With that in mind, here are the 12-round leaders in birdies or better gained:

1. Rory McIlroy (+1000)
2. Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+1200)
4. Cameron Young (+6600)
5. Keegan Bradley (+8000)

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Key Stat #5 – Three-Putt Avoidance (15 percent emphasis)

Although the greens are much easier to hit at St. Andrew’s — the average green in regulation percentage here is 76 percent, compared to 66 percent at the average tour stop — that doesn’t mean they don’t have teeth.

Much like Augusta National Golf Club, a key correlated course in my handicap this week, the Old Course greens feature heavy sloping and a number of undulations that will challenge players’s flat sticks.

Combine that fact with the recent trends that this course has yielded high winning scores and I want heavy emphasis in my model on players who can get on the green and walk off with a two-putt. Plus, there’s a decent correlation between three-putt avoidance and finishing position at this track, per fantasynational.com:

As a result, this stat gets a bit more emphasis compared to a normal tour stop. Here are the 12-round leaders in three-putt avoidance:

1. Lucas Herbert (+15000)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)
3. Guido Migliozzi (+30000)
4. Abraham Ancer (+8000)
5. Zach Johnson (+25000)