While the doubleheader between the Yankees and Astros is the clear headliner on the short MLB slate Thursday, the under-the-radar game between the Rangers and Marlins looks to provide the best value.
On the surface, it looks as if the Marlins hold a distinct pitching advantage, with Pablo Lopez taking on the Rangers’ Jon Gray, but a look below the hood reveals that this matchup could be closer than meets the eye.
While Lopez’s 2.86 ERA sparkles, his 3.55 xFIP points to some negative regression. Additionally, Lopez has shaky of late, posting a 4.20 ERA and 4.16 xFIP over his last 45 innings.
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Rangers vs. Marlins prediction
On the other side, Jon Gray seems due for some positive regression when you compare his 3.71 ERA to his 3.25 xFIP. And unlike Lopez, Gray has been getting better as the season has gone. Gray owns a 2.15 ERA, 2.53 xFIP and 10.27 K/9 over his last six starts (37 2/3 innings).
And even though the Marlins’ offense boasts the stronger overall numbers against right-handed pitching this season, if you take a sluggish April out of the equation for the Rangers, Texas’ offense has been trending better than Miami’s for quite a while. Since May 1, the Rangers own a .313 wOBA and 104 wRC+, while the Marlins have posted a below-average .297 wOBA and 94 wRC+ in that same span.
Betting on Baseball?
There’s very little that separates the Marlins and Rangers, but Texas is trending slightly better and has value as the underdog in this tilt.
Rangers vs. Marlins pick
Rangers +105 — BetMGM
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