Pittsburgh Steelers 2022 schedule, prop bet picks, predictions

Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Pittsburgh Steelers. Be sure to check out our Chicago Bears preview, published yesterday.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+8000 to win the Super Bowl, Caesars)

2021 Record: 9-7-1 (2nd in AFC North)

Let the AB era begin in Pittsburgh. No, we’re not talking about Antonio Brown — rather, this is the “After Ben” era for head coach Mike Tomlin.

Following the retirement of longtime QB Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers are expected to suffer a significant dropoff in the AFC. After finishing second in the division last season, Pittsburgh possesses the lowest win total among the four AFC North teams.

Oddsmakers are also projecting the Steelers, who are facing a quarterback competition between new signee Mitchell Trubisky and first-round pick Kenny Pickett, to have their first losing season under Tomlin.

In more positive news, the Steelers return a defense that ranked 14th in total DVOA and eighth in pass DVOA last season, per Football Outsiders.

Steelers offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report

• Signed QB Mitchell Trubisky
• Drafted Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett (No. 20), Georgia WR George Pickens (No. 52), Texas A&M DE DeMarvin Leal (No. 84), Memphis WR Calvin Austin III (No. 138), Michigan State FB Connor Heyward (No. 208), Mississippi LB Mark Robinson (No. 225), South Dakota State QB Chris Oladokun (No. 241)
• Signed DB Levi Wallace, C Mason Cole, G James Daniels and LB Myles Jack. 

Steelers 2022 Schedule

Week 1: at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 2: vs. New England Patriots

Week 3: at Cleveland Browns

Week 4: vs. New York Jets

Week 5: at Buffalo Bills

Week 6: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 7: at Miami Dolphins

Week 8: at Philadelphia Eagles

Week 9: BYE

Week 10: vs. New Orleans Saints

Week 11: vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Week 12: at Indianapolis Colts

Week 13: at Atlanta Falcons

Week 14: vs. Baltimore Ravens

Week 15: at Carolina Panthers

Week 16: vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Week 17: at Baltimore Ravens

Week 18: vs. Cleveland Browns

NFL Betting Lines: Steelers Win Total O/U

7.5 Wins (FanDuel)

The heart of the Steelers’ schedule — Weeks 5 through 12 — is definitely worrisome, but there are winnable games on the slate.

Remember, this is a Pittsburgh squad that was 6-2-1 at home last season. In the previous season, Tomlin’s side was 7-1 when playing in Pittsburgh. Although the Steelers have an added road game this season, their home schedule — Patriots, Jets, Bucs, Saints, Bengals, Ravens, Raiders, Browns — isn’t what I would consider to be extremely intimidating.

There’s also a case to be made that the Steelers could be favored in as many as 6-7 games this season. One of the games against Cleveland will be in Week 3 while quarterback Deshaun Watson is serving his six-game suspension (if it holds). So, while Pittsburgh is expected to take a step back this season, it may not be the decline some are predicting.

Betting on the NFL?

There’s a definite case for the Steelers to clear this win total. Over the last three seasons, their defense has finished the year 14th or better (third in 2019, first in 2020 and 14th in 2021), per Football Outsiders. Given the defense sustained a number of injuries last season, I would certainly expect they’ll be better than 27th against the run in 2022.

While improvement is needed on that front, it’s worth noting the Steelers pass defense has finished eighth or better in each of the last three seasons. Based on those trends, there’s an argument their offense just needs to average in order to allow their defense to drive game results.

For those reasons, I’m inclined to back the Over on the Steelers’ win total. However, this one is going to be close either way.

Steelers over/under pick:

LEAN Over 7.5 Wins (Play at +100 or better) depending on Watson suspension

Expert best bets, futures, props

Mike Tomlin – Coach of the Year (+3000, FanDuel)

The expectations are clearly set very low for the Steelers this season. However, Tomlin fits the bill as a potential coach of the year candidate.

Per my Action Network colleague Steve Petrella, there are three types of coaches who win this award — those who win 5-7 more games than the previous season, those who elevate a good team into a great one, and those who face adversity and keep their team in the playoffs.

Tomlin fits the third criterion. And although the Steelers are expected to struggle, there’s an argument to be made that Pittsburgh’s ceiling is simultaneously quite high.

Assuming the Steelers win five-plus home games, they may be able to sneak into the playoffs with road wins against the Falcons, Browns (no Watson), Eagles, Dolphins and Panthers. Given the historic strength of Pittsburgh’s pass defense, they are certainly capable of capturing these games against average-at-best quarterbacks.

Should that season script come to fruition, Tomlin will likely earn a lot of credit for guiding the Steelers to a 10-win season in their first year without Roethlisberger. At 30/1, I’m willing to take a flier on that happening.