LAS VEGAS — It’s early in free agency, the evidence is fairly thin and we are mostly reading tea leaves, but the best guess as of today is that the Yankees have a much better chance to keep Aaron Judge than the Mets have to hold onto Jacob deGrom.
The Yankees’ hopes have risen and fallen in recent weeks, but one club executive said he felt more “confident” now than he had previously, and two Yankees people volunteered that Judge’s wife Samantha Bracksieck ran the New York City Marathon on Sunday, hopefully wondering if that was a positive sign. (A rival agent wondered if that might actually be a ploy to show other teams of interest in New York, but from here running a marathon seems like a lot of trouble to undertake as a fakeout measure.) Meantime, folks who have spoken to the Mets lately opine that they believe deGrom seems pretty likely to leave.
While the Yankees understandably have made Judge easily their No. 1 priority, with general manager Brian Cashman gushing about the myriad reasons he’s so valuable to them, the Mets have suggested no particular free-agent priority order. The quick record agreement with star closer Edwin Diaz, and the enthusiasm they showed in that pursuit, may in fact suggest it was he — and not deGrom — who topped their list.
It’s a matter of dollars and good sense, too. Judge is by far and away the most productive player on a reasonably short list of Yankees free agents, while at least Diaz and Brandon Nimmo outproduced deGrom last season (and Chris Bassitt and Taiuan Walker may have, too). The belief is that the Yankees will be willing to top Judge’s $36 million a year asking price from back in spring, before he became the AL single-season home run record holder, and if deGrom wants to top Max Scherzer’s record $43.3 million Mets salary, as some suggest, the strong indications are that it will not be with the Mets.
While Judge likely wasn’t thrilled with the Yankees’ $213.5 million offer in spring (there was no counteroffer), deGrom showed he’s upset with his current contract by declaring multiple times that he would opt out of his deal, which he did Monday, officially making him a free agent.
Steve Cohen agreed to the $102 million relief record deal for Diaz but don’t assume that means their budget is endless, either; folks who’ve spoken to them say they do indeed have a payroll target. Meantime, the Yankees, with a lower payroll that is far from the fourth-tier tax threshold (aka the Steve Cohen tax), and fewer current needs, would also seem to have more room to pay.
The speculation that either New York team may try to steal the other team’s marquee franchise player — i.e. the Mets signing Judge, the Yankees signing deGrom — has no noticeable legs. There’s an era of good feeling between our local teams, and while that may not last, it seems very evident right now. Neither side seems up for an intracity war.
The most likely and logical outside signers would seem to be the Giants for Judge and the Rangers for deGrom. While a Giants person called “crazy” the report they would do whatever it takes to sign Judge, it’s pretty clear the big-market Giants will make a serious play. The Rangers, with deep pockets, were scouting deGrom late and are in desperate need of multiple big-time rotation upgrades.
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