2022 NHL Stanley Cup and futures odds, picks, predictions

The 2022-23 NHL season surpassed the 200-game threshold on Tuesday night, meaning we’re now exiting the “it’s still early” phase of the campaign and hurling towards the “meaningful sample size” part of the schedule. 

With that in mind, now is a good time to check in on a few teams that have seen their odds change from Opening Night.

Let’s take a look at a few notable squads and their current odds to hoist the Stanley Cup next summer:

Sell High: New Jersey Devils (+2200, Caesars)

The Devils are the story of the first month of the season. After losing their first two games, New Jersey has won 10 of its last 11 to vault to the top of the Metropolitan Division. Nothing about what the Devils are doing seems like a fluke, either.

New Jersey leads the NHL in 5-on-5 goal differential, expected goals rate and high-danger chance percentage. Everything is clicking. The Devils look like a force to be reckoned with, even if the goaltending is still a concern.

Bookmakers have taken notice, shortening the Devils to +2200, putting them in the same range as preseason contenders like the Wild, Rangers and Penguins. 

It’s hard to poke holes in the Devils’ start. The underlying numbers are elite, the soft schedule criticisms have been put to bed after wins over the Avalanche, Oilers and Flames (twice), and New Jersey’s star players are all in great form. But, even with all that strong momentum, now is not the time to back the upstarts from Jersey.

Timing is a huge part of having success as a bettor, and backing a preseason long shot after they captivated the league’s attention with a seven-game winning streak is not the right time to buy in. The NHL season is a marathon and the Devils will have to deal with some adversity, so if you’re interested in getting on the bandwagon, you can likely find a better time later in the campaign. 

As for the immediate future, it’s very likely that the Devils will be over-valued on a game-to-game basis. Bettors are going to have to pay a premium to back this team over the next few games and that’s not a great spot for a team with less than reliable goaltending.

Just because you’re selling high on a team doesn’t mean that you don’t think they’re good. The Devils have earned every bit of respect they’re getting right now and they’re clearly a strong team. But we’re going to see some really short prices on this team starting this week with a three-game stretch against Ottawa, Arizona and Montreal, and bettors should be on the lookout for big numbers to fade a team that has priced itself out of the market.

Buy Low: Pittsburgh Penguins (+3000, BetMGM)

The Pittsburgh Penguins were shot out of a cannon for the first week of the regular season. Pittsburgh started the campaign 4-0-1 and scored six goals in each of their victories. The Penguins were back. Until they weren’t.

The Penguins are now on a six-game losing streak, 10 points behind the division-leading Devils and five points adrift of the Lightning, who currently hold the last playoff spot. It’s too early to panic, but it’s definitely fair to question if Father Time has won another battle. 

Despite their struggles, there is reason to be optimistic that the Penguins should be able to trudge up the table. Pittsburgh is generally controlling play at 5-on-5 and ranks inside the top-five in expected goals rate and high-danger chance rate. Should the Pens continue to post those kind of numbers, they’ll start winning games. 

It’s fair to be skeptical about how this roster will hold up over an 82-game season, but getting Pittsburgh at double their odds from the preseason makes them an intriguing buy-low opportunity in the futures market.

Betting on the NHL?

Buy High: Seattle Kraken (+8000, BetMGM)

The Pacific Division is not playing out as expected, and that has opened up a legitimate path to success for the Seattle Kraken.

The general consensus coming into the season was that the Pacific would be a two-horse race between the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames, with a bounce-back season from the Vegas Golden Knights potentially turning it into a three-way tussle.

Behind those three was supposed to be a battle for fourth-place, and a potential Wild Card spot, between the Los Angeles Kings and Vancouver Canucks.

That has not been the case.

While the Knights have soared to the top of the NHL, the Oilers and Flames have sputtered, the Kings have been inconsistent and the Canucks have been a disaster. 

The Kraken have taken advantage of the chaos by posting an 8-4-2 record through their first 14 contests.

The numbers for Seattle aren’t eye-popping, but the Kraken sport an expected goals rate above 50% and are basically breaking even on high-danger chances so far.

But what’s most encouraging for this team is that the depth is shining through. Seattle may not have the top-end talent of some other contenders (though Matty Beniers is getting there), but the Kraken make up for it with their depth. Dave Hakstol can roll four lines and three defense pairs night in and night out, which is something that very few teams can do thanks to the flat salary cap.

There’s certainly a chance that Seattle begins to struggle as the season wears on, but given the state of the Pacific Division, the Kraken should have a pretty decent margin for error. Additionally, the Kraken have a ton of assets like draft picks and prospects they can part with at the deadline to shore up their roster.

There’s a number of different ways to play the Kraken right now. The +8000 on Seattle to win the Stanley Cup is definitely interesting, but you could also back head coach Dave Hakstol (+4000, Caesars) to win the Jack Adams as well. 

Generally speaking, buying high on a preseason long shot after a hot start is not a best practice, but the numbers are still high enough on Seattle that bettors have not missed out on a great opportunity.