Rishi Sunak’s recent run of political success looks set to collide with electoral reality next month, when the Conservatives face a possible battering in local elections across England.
The UK prime minister has tried not to draw attention to the May 4 contests, which will take place in 8,000 seats across 230 council areas, in one of the biggest tests of public opinion ahead of the general election.
The national media was not invited to the party’s campaign launch in Wolverhampton on March 24 — few noticed it had even happened — while the Tory spring forum, normally a big event, was held behind closed doors.
With election experts claiming the party could lose perhaps 1,000 seats, the town hall contests look set to be a jarring note in the Tory narrative of political recovery under Sunak’s leadership.
“The prime minister is doing well, but we need a lot more time to win the public back after last year’s disasters,” admitted one Sunak ally, referring to the doomed premierships of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.
The Conservatives face a fight on two fronts, with Labour looking to reclaim the “red wall” of the North and Midlands, and the Liberal Democrats looking to make gains in the southern Tory “blue wall”.
Sunak has closed to just four points the gap on Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer in “who would make the best prime minister” polling, according to YouGov, but his party still typically trails Labour by 15-20 points.
The polls suggest Sunak is seen as a competent leader, following his renegotiation of the Northern Ireland protocol and the delivery of a Budget that did not implode, but his party’s reputation remains dire.
The Conservatives cannot even cling to the fact that four years ago — when these seats were last fought — the party appeared to be at rock bottom, as Theresa May’s premiership staggered to its Brexit-related end.
The Tories lost about 1,000 seats in the equivalent 2019 local elections, but polling experts believe that they could still have further to fall.
The Tory party still have 3,365 seats to defend on May 4 — about the same figure as Labour (2,131) and the Lib Dems (1,223) combined. Another 1,338 seats in contention are held by independents.
Psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher wrote this week that a 6 per cent swing from the Conservatives to Labour — compared with 2019 — would see the Tories losing 1,000 seats and Labour gaining about 700.
“Such a swing is rather less than current polling suggests, but even in the Blair era, Labour struggled to match its poll rating with local votes,” the pair wrote in the Local Government Chronicle.
Labour launched its local election campaign on Thursday in Swindon with a pledge to freeze council tax next year — although bizarrely the party admitted this promise might not apply if it was actually in power.
At an event with prospective parliamentary candidates last weekend, Starmer acknowledged the party was in a “great position” but added: “No complacency. Complacency will kill us. If we think the job is done, we will lose the election.”
Starmer’s caution is well-founded, especially given that focus groups repeatedly reach an awkward conclusion that voters have not warmed to the Labour leader and many have no idea what he stands for.
Tory strategists hope to be able to claim on May 4 that Labour has underperformed — compared with its massive headline poll lead — due to an “enthusiasm gap” relating to Starmer’s lacklustre leadership.
Key metropolitan boroughs include Bolton and Wirral, both being targeted by Labour, which also hopes to make some gains in Tory-controlled Dudley and Walsall.
Sir Ed Davey, Liberal Democrat leader, is meanwhile confident of making further inroads into affluent Tory areas of the south. He launched his party’s campaign by driving a yellow tractor into a wall of blue-painted hay bales.
Conservatives admit that true-blue areas such as Oxfordshire — which has returned Tory MPs including Boris Johnson and David Cameron — are under heavy pressure from the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems gained about 700 seats four years ago, but this left them below where they were in the early days of their membership of the Tory-led coalition that began in 2010.
In 2011 the Lib Dems had 3,104 councillors, which fell to 1,810 in 2015 — at the tail-end of the coalition — before recovering to 2,531 in 2019, fuelled by a strong anti-Brexit backlash.
Lord Robert Hayward, a Tory psephologist and former MP, said his party was starting to close the gap under Sunak but only slowly. “The position has improved somewhat for the Conservative party,” he said.
“But they are still facing a major uphill challenge at this election. I can’t predict at this stage what the likely losses would be. I would expect them to lose marked numbers of seats to both Labour and the Lib Dems.”
Conservative strategists admit that they may not significantly close Labour’s poll lead until the end of 2023 at the earliest, by which point the economy could be starting to recovery.
In the meantime, the local elections represent a considerable obstacle, offering Labour and the Lib Dems a chance to claim that the tide is running out on Sunak’s government.
For the prime minister there is — however — a bright spot. Even if the news from the local elections on May 4 is grim, the coverage of his party’s misfortunes is likely to be shortlived.
Many of the results will not be announced until May 5, just as the country prepares for a Bank Holiday weekend to celebrate the coronation of King Charles and Camilla.
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