We’re already two weeks into this MLB season, but one of the most thrilling preseason betting markets remains open: Who will lead the majors in home runs?
It takes a lot to pace all of baseball in long balls, especially while Aaron Judge is still swinging in New York.
He’s the clear betting favorite (+320) at FanDuel after hitting a ridiculous 62 homers in 2022, and he already has launched four through his first 13 games this season.
Still, at such short odds, there isn’t much value in backing the home run king to repeat his heroics in 2023.
Instead, here are a few distant long shots worth betting after the first two weeks, with stats and odds as of Friday afternoon:
Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles (48/1)
No player has hit more home runs through the first two weeks of the season than Mountcastle, who was tied with the second-favorite Pete Alonso (+700) with six dingers ahead of the weekend.
So why is he still dealing as an afterthought in this market?
Sure, the Orioles youngster doesn’t have as lengthy a track record as other top sluggers on this list, but his batted-ball data speaks volumes: He ranks third in barrels (10) and seventh in barrels per plate appearance (17.2 percent), and he already has hit 21 balls at least 95 mph.
Don’t forget that Mountcastle has high-end prospect pedigree and hit a combined 55 home runs across his first two full seasons in Baltimore.
The early returns suggest he has taken his game to another level in 2023, and I’ll gladly bet on him sustaining this run at such a long-shot price.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (55/1)
It feels as if the entire baseball world is sleeping on the imminent return of Tatis, who is eligible to play for the Padres beginning April 20.
And I suspect he won’t waste time making an impact.
In his last season, 2021, he led the National League in home runs (42) despite playing just 130 games (he’ll likely play more than that in 2023, even with the suspension) and he hit 39 homers in 143 combined games across his first two seasons in the majors.
Clearly, even a late start isn’t enough to stay away from this bet entirely.
He also has looked sharp so far in Triple-A: his first blast of the year went viral earlier this season, and he smacked three more for El Paso on Thursday in a clear statement performance.
He sure looks ready for his return to the big leagues, and I wouldn’t want to be the one betting against him.
Matt Chapman, Blue Jays (70/1)
When I saw Chapman this far down the list, my jaw dropped. Have oddsmakers even been watching baseball over the last two weeks?
If they have, they’d know that Chapman is tearing the cover off the ball in his second season in Toronto.
As of Friday afternoon, Chapman led the majors in total barrels (12), barrels per plate appearance (23.1 percent), average exit velocity (98.8 mph) and percentage of swings resulting in a hard-hit ball (29.1 percent).
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How’s that for a resounding start to the season?
That isn’t a fluke, either: Chapman hit 27 home runs in each of his last two seasons and belted 36 home runs in 2019.
He’s hitting the ball harder now than he ever has, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he parlays that into his first-ever home run crown.
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