Breaking down Subway Series matchups as Yankees-Mets resumes

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newspress collage l7rtkf5t6 1690262797164

Both teams will be trying to persuade their front offices to buy.

But either team, on the wrong end of a sweep, would be close to saying goodbye.

The Yankees and Mets will meet for a high-stakes, two-game Subway Series in The Bronx beginning Tuesday, which will open their final week of play before the trade deadline arrives.

The Yankees, coming off a sweep of the hopeless Royals, sit on the playoff bubble. As long as they remain on the periphery of contention, they could envision a returning Aaron Judge and a deadline reinforcement or two pushing them into the postseason field.

The Mets’ predicament is more dire, seven games under .500 and guaranteed a losing record at the Aug. 1 deadline. Two losses at the Stadium could lead to GM Billy Eppler hosting a fire sale.

Ahead of what might be the last fans see of these editions of the Yankees and Mets, The Post takes a look at how they match up:

At the plate

Getting on base: Entering MLB action Monday, the only teams worse than the Yankees at reaching base were the Royals, White Sox, Tigers and A’s. It has been an ugly season for Yankees hitters, which led to a midseason coaching shake-up. There have been recent signs of life, though, from Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu. The Mets have been middle of the pack in on-base percentage, led by leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo (.358 OBP). The return of Tommy Pham (.355 OBP) would help.


Brandon Nimmo helps provide the Mets an advantage at the plate over the Yankees.
Robert Sabo for the NY Post

Edge: Mets

Power: The Yankees have slugged more home runs this season. The Mets have smacked two more home runs this month. The majority of the proven big bats (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Rizzo, Stanton) have had poor months. Both teams have found capable young power (Francisco Alvarez with 19 homers, Anthony Volpe with 13).

Edge: Even

On the basepaths

Neither team has been especially sharp, both recording too many outs (the Mets 31, the Yankees 29) on the bases. But the Mets have been MLB’s best at stealing efficiency (successful 92 percent of the time), while Stanton, Rizzo and LeMahieu can clog things up by going station- to-station.

Edge: Mets

In the field

Infield: The metrics favor the Yankees, who are more sure-handed particularly at the corners. Rizzo’s glove saves more errors than Alonso’s, and LeMahieu’s experience beats the still-developing Brett Baty. Lindor is the best glove among the group, and his arm is stronger than Volpe’s, while second base (presuming Gleyber Torres plays after tweaking his hip Sunday) projects as a tossup.


Francisco Lindor might have the best glove in the Subway Series.
Francisco Lindor might have the best glove in the Subway Series.
Charles Wenzelberg

Edge: Yankees

Outfield: The Mets’ outfield is deeper and more reliable, while the Yankees’ can be more spectacular (solely because of Harrison Bader’s ability in center field). Bader’s return has settled down a rocky Yankees group, but Aaron Boone still will look to pull Jake Bauers (or perhaps Stanton) late in games for defensive reasons. A corner outfield consisting of Pham and Mark Canha would beat the Yankees’ options in left and right.

Edge: Mets

Bench: The Mets’ bench is more powerful, the Yankees’ more useful. Mark Vientos could be a valuable late-game bat, but his strength has been theoretical in the majors thus far. Omar Narvaez is a good backup catcher, while Danny Mendick and DJ Stewart are trying to prove themselves. In the other dugout will be a late-inning pinch runner and defensive replacement (Greg Allen), a super utilityman (Isiah Kiner-Falefa) and a solid defensive infielder (Oswald Peraza). We’ll opt for the unit with clearer roles.

Edge: Yankees

On the mound

Rotation: The four expected starting pitchers have combined for five no-hitters/perfect games, three by Justin Verlander. The Mets co-ace has looked more like himself in the past month, pitching to a 1.74 ERA in his past five games. The Mets will follow with Jose Quintana, who looked sharp in his season debut. The Yankees will turn to Domingo German, who has volleyed between literal perfection and wild imperfection in a season in which he totes a 4.52 ERA. Carlos Rodon will start Wednesday, and his kiss has received more attention than his arm.

Edge: Mets


Carlos Rodon will start for the Yankees on Wednesday in his first outing since the kiss saga.
Carlos Rodon will start for the Yankees on Wednesday in his first outing since the kiss saga.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

Bullpen: The Mets’ bullpen has struggled most of the season, while the Yankees’ has struggled most of the month. Both closers — Clay Holmes in The Bronx, David Robertson in Queens — have been excellent, but Yankees middle relievers have disappointed recently and the Mets’ much of the year. The Yankees relievers’ 3.21 ERA entered play Monday as the best in baseball, but options such as Michael King, Ron Marinaccio, Tommy Kahnle and Albert Abreu have shown signs of tiring. The Mets bullpen’s 4.20 ERA was the 11th worst in baseball, unable to find help behind Robertson, Brooks Raley and Adam Ottavino.

Edge: Yankees


David Robertson has been excellent for the Mets while serving as their closer.
David Robertson has been excellent for the Mets while serving as their closer.
Charles Wenzelberg

Manager

Aaron Boone is not to blame for the Yankees’ veteran hitters looking old. Buck Showalter is not to blame for too many arms letting the club down. Boone managed the sweep over the Royals like a playoff series, including using Clay Holmes in back-to-back games. The veteran Mets are playing hard for Showalter even as they fade.

Edge: Even

Intangibles

Both teams will be rested after Monday’s off day. The Yankees should have the confidence boost after feasting on Kansas City, while the pressure sits more squarely on the Mets, who know any loss now could be the one that instructs Eppler to begin selling.

Edge: Yankees

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