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To understand today’s Labour party is to recognise fear. While pundits debate whether Keir Starmer is more influenced by Tony Blair, Gordon Brown or Harold Wilson, the figures who loom largest are Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock. These leaders seemed to be heading for victory only to see it snatched away.
Terror is now Labour’s driving emotion. Every Tory attack or announcement is seen as a potential trap. Caution is so embedded that if Rishi Sunak announced the slaughter of the first born, Starmer might hesitate to commit to its repeal until the full fiscal implications had been considered.
Such fear is warranted. After the calamity of the Corbyn era, Starmer’s core mission is reassuring voters it is safe to back Labour again. He has tackled it with gusto, purging the hard-left, the fairly hard-left and pretty much anyone who once had a latte with any of the above. Having signalled he would maintain the Corbyn agenda, he junked its policies and marginalised their advocates. That this was necessary cannot mask the shiftiness. If he can do it to his party, Tories argue, he can do it to the voters.
Starmer has tacked steadily towards the political centre, ditching not only his predecessor’s positions but those he once held himself if they might alienate those traditionalist target voters he needs to regain. From Brexit to trans rights he has been single-minded in what Tory strategists call “scraping the barnacles” from the boat. When people question Starmer’s values, only one stands out. He wants to win.
Conservatives continue to try to depict Labour as dangerously red. Starmer is even, absurdly, accused of aligning with disruptive Just Stop Oil protesters. His firm response to such attacks — notably calling the activists’ tactics “contemptible” — demonstrate one thing. Starmer will not lightly give the Tories any opportunity. And that, perversely, is their opportunity.
There are two ways to win in politics. The first is obvious, the second and more lasting way is when, even in defeat, you impose your own values on opponents. This is where Starmer’s resolve to expose no flank will be embraced by the Tories.
First, it offers the simple attack that he cannot be trusted. That he flip-flops. His list of policy reverses in the face of public opinion is already long. The largest is Brexit. Starmer’s Labour will not seek to rejoin the single market or customs union or restore free movement of people. The man who secured the leadership by being Labour’s most prominent Remainer is committed only to “making Brexit work,” with incremental reforms to ease friction.
On immigration, the overall stance is distinguishable from the government’s only in appearing less mean-spirited. Starmer supports points-based immigration controls and reducing the need for foreign workers. Labour opposes plans to deport illegal arrivals to Rwanda but has hammered the Tories for failing to stop the small boats.
Starmer has clamped down on spending promises, recently refusing to guarantee to roll back a welfare cut he once called a “vast social injustice”. He says existing tax levels are too high and, like the Tories, talks up public service reforms to fund improvements.
Last month, Labour updated its trans policy, rowing back on its previous support for gender self-ID, so the party line now bears strong similarities to views which saw the leadership ostracise one of its own MPs, Rosie Duffield.
After a by-election setback in Uxbridge and Tory attacks on the costs of green policies, Starmer has toned down his net zero spending promises, backed away from the Ulez tax on high-polluting vehicles in London and pledged not to revoke newly issued oil and gas licences.
All of these decisions look politically shrewd. The dire state of the public finances make some of these reverses pardonable. But they also represent an acceptance of the Tory consensus. Sunak’s allies see an opponent who can be pushed on to their territory. Finally the caution also makes it harder to sell a hopeful vision of change.
This is not to subscribe to the lazy criticism that there is no distinction between the parties. There are major differences, not least on workers’ rights and green investment.
It is also true that a leader who has switched positions once may do so again when elected. His instincts are those of the Labour soft left. Once in office, he might reluctantly conclude that the country needs more dramatic action than he previously admitted. Re-engagement with the EU may go further than signposted, Labour will find taxes to raise and in the daily hard choices of government his true values will emerge. The gamble for voters will be guessing which Starmer they are electing.
Nonetheless, the price of caution is accepting large parts of the Tory programme. In key areas, Starmer’s pitch will look a lot like Boris Johnson’s in 2019, partly due to the former prime minister’s innate interventionism. On Brexit, immigration, tax, China, regional policy, trans rights and even to a degree on net zero, Labour is on Conservative ground (though some on the Tory right are keen to vacate it).
Oppositions often accept the consensus set by those who beat them as their path back to power. Labour has bought the bulk of the Johnson manifesto and, in its fear, can probably be pushed further. The upshot would be that even if the Tories lose power, they may still be setting the agenda.
robert.shrimsley@ft.com
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