The Jets are in a serious tailspin. A season with Super Bowl expectations quickly turned to panic once Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on the first drive of the year. This “Sunday Night Football” game between the Chiefs and Jets had all the potential in the world. But with Zach Wilson under center, there’s likely more viewers tuning in to watch Travis Kelce and see cameos from Taylor Swift than the actual game.
Rather than focusing on the side or total in this matchup, I actually think there’s a player who is undervalued in the market, and that’s Breece Hall.
The Jets brought in Dalvin Cook via free agency, and it was a poor decision. They already had a crowded backfield, and Cook has come in and been ineffective. He’s averaging 2.3 yards per carry and has broken just one run for double digits.
Quietly, we’ve seen Cook’s snap count decline bit by bit. In the season opener, he played 50 percent of snaps. That number dropped to 36 in Week 2 and all the way down to 25 against the Patriots.
Hall? He’s taken the opposite trajectory. He’s jumped from 31 percent in Week 1 up to 34 then a huge jump to 49 last week. It’s been a gradual snap increase for the RB fresh off a torn ACL, but I’m expecting that number only to raise as he cements himself as the lead back for Gang Green.
As a whole, this Jets offense has sputtered. It’s been ugly. The public perception has obviously flipped so heavily that you could argue New York is undervalued Sunday night. They have plenty of explosive weapons, and Hall is perfect to attack where the Chiefs defense is weakest.
Though Kansas City ranks inside the top 10 in DVOA against the pass, they are down at 18th against the run. Linebacker Nick Bolton is also out for this game, and was a key contributor against the rush last season and finished with a PFF grade of 77.6.
That loss is huge in the middle of the field and a plus for Hall not only as a runner but as a receiver as well. Wilson doesn’t have the propensity to throw it downfield — or the coaches don’t trust him enough to scheme it — so the Jets have looked to gain small chunks at a time to move the football.
Most of that has come through trying to stabilize a ground game. There’s no secret to how explosive Hall can be. Last year he played in seven games and finished with a rush of 16-plus yards in every single one of them. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry and showed his ability as a capable receiver, too.
There needs to be changes within the Jets offense, and we’re quietly seeing those moves be made. The ball needs to be put in the hands of Garrett Wilson and Hall more, two players who have shown the ability to break off huge gains. In his season debut, Hall ran for 127 yards on Buffalo, highlighted by an 83-yard gain. He also hauled in a 20-yard reception.
Betting on the NFL?
Though I like his combined rush+receiving yards prop, there’s enough value in receiving alone for me to fire. He’s been targeted two times each week this season — has gone over the current 8.5 number twice — and that’s with limited snap counts.
This is the week for Hall to break apart from Cook and Michael Carter and become the RB1 snaps-wise. He has gone over 8.5 receiving yards in 70 percent of his games — one of those under games was when he tore his ACL — and with a negative game script working in his favor, I expect Hall to make an impact as Wilson’s safety valve.
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