Confession: We’re fantasy romantics. We love when the stars align, when we lock eyes with the love of our season (or week) from across the roster. We sometimes believe in fate and destiny and all that sappy stuff.
So, after spending the season so far shouting that Jets running back Breece Hall was not trustworthy, we are ready for a change of heart.
If you used him, he has been a heartbreaker early. He teased you Week 1 with a long run to pad his stats. In three games since, he has averaged just 4.8 in PPR. That’s a bad date.
Yet, we had a moment this week, the Madman and Hall’s rest-of-season outlook.
And now we’re knocking at Breece’s fantasy door proclaiming, “I was just nowhere near your neighborhood.”
If you recall, we anticipated Dalvin Cook playing a large role early in the season.
But Cook looks cooked. And now Breece’s carry curfew is being lifted.
Coach Robert Saleh said this week Hall is no longer on a pitch count, after the team used caution in his return from an ACL injury.
Outside of a blowout loss to the Cowboys, when the Jets had just 16 total rush attempts, Hall has 9, 13 and 11 touches. So the plan headed into Sunday will be for him to get more than that.
If he gets roughly half of Cook’s roughly equal touches, that means we could expect Hall to get close to 20 touches this week.
Thus far, Hall has averaged .082 points per touch in PPR formats. Nevertheless, in his rookie season, he averaged 1.2 in seven games.
So, if he only gets, say, 18 touches, and only scores his career average across 11 games (1.01), that is 18.2 in PPR. Those are the kind of numbers that make us say of him emerging as the lead: “We wanted it to be you.”
But this week isn’t just any old date. Breece is taking us to a Broncos game.
The same Broncos who are giving up 23.3 points above the league average each week to fantasy RBs.
That means the Broncos are more than twice as bad as the league average.
So if we adjust our numbers accordingly, that’s nearly a 40-point projection!? That’s absurd, right?
Well, yeah. The Denver numbers are skewed by the Week 3 outlier in Miami, when the Broncos gave up the top two RB weeks (De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert) — in the same game.
That was one week after giving up the much smaller yet still biggest Week 2 RB game to Washington’s Brian Robinson Jr.
Betting on the NFL?
But we don’t need a 40-point, Hollywood fantasy hottie. We are just fine with a gorgeous fantasy RB next door who still puts up well over 20 in PPR. That kind of day would have us at “Hello.”
The stars are aligning. It was meant to be. Breece, you complete us. And after this week, we’re gonna wish we knew how to quit you.
Big weeks
Zach Wilson QB, Jets, at Broncos (FanDuel $6,700/DraftKings $4,900)
We spent a lot of time telling you why you should play Breece Hall against the Broncos, whose run defense is the league’s most generous. Well, Denver is also last vs. opposing quarterbacks. Wilson looked good last week, and everyone looks good vs. Denver.
Matthew Stafford QB, Rams, vs. Eagles (FD $6,800/DK $5,600)
Cooper Kupp is expected back, and Philly has struggled against opposing fantasy QBs — ranking 27th so far this season.
Jonathan Taylor RB, Colts, vs. Titans (FD $7,400/DK $6,800)
The Madman often is cautious in these scenarios, and will sit returning players who are iffy leading into the game. But if Taylor plays, use him. He plays too huge a role in the offense to ignore, even in a bad matchup.
Zay Flowers WR, Ravens, at Steelers (FD $5,900/DK $5,500)
The Pittsburgh defense has been invisible. Flowers has gotten ample looks, and he is due a TD or two.
Small weaks
Dak Prescott QB, Cowboys, at 49ers (FD $6,700/DK $6,100)
He is averaging fewer than 15 fantasy points per game. Niners almost fell into a trap last week, but expect their shutdown best in prime time.
Isiah Pacheco RB, Chiefs, at Vikings (FD $6,600/DK $5,700)
Had a huge game last week, off a good game the week before. But enhance your calm. He has averaged 13.1 in PPR since Week 11 last season. He’s fine. Not great, just fine.
Jaleel McLaughlin RB, Broncos, vs. Jets (FD $5,700/DK $5,000)
We think the Jets fantasy RB defense will prove better than its current 22nd rank. The bad Denver D will help, since the Jets offense should be able to stay on the field longer.
Tyler Boyd WR, Bengals, at Cardinals (FD $6,200/DK $4,500)
If Tee Higgins (rib) is out or limited, many will turn to Boyd. Allow us to remind you: The Bengals have scored three offensive TDs — total — in four games.
Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun. main (10 games)
Type: $5 tourney
Top prize: $300K
Pot: $1.5M
Drew’s Crew
QB: Matthew Stafford — LAR (vs. Phi) $6,800
RB: David Montgomery — Det (vs. Car) $8,500
RB: Breece Hall — NYJ (at Den) $6,500
WR: Puka Nacua — LAR (at Phi) $8,000
WR: Tyreek Hill — Mia (vs. NYG) $9,400
WR: Zay Flowers — Bal (at Pit) $5,900
TE: Zach Ertz — Ari (vs. Cin) $5,100
Flex: Dameon Pierce — Hou (at Atl) $6,200
DEF: Texans — Hou (at Atl) $3,600
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Zach Wilson — NYJ (at Den) $6,700
RB: De’Von Achane — Mia (vs. NYG) $7,500
RB: Bijan Robinson — Atl (vs. Hou) $8,200
WR: Rashee Rice — KC (at Min) $5,000
WR: Zay Flowers — Bal (at Pit) $5,900
WR: Tyreek Hill — Mia (vs. NYG) $9,400
TE: Zach Ertz — Ari (vs. Cin) $5,100
Flex: David Montgomery — Det (vs. Car) $8,500
DEF: Cardinals — Ari (vs. Cin) $3,700
Season risked: $37
Season’s winnings: Drew $29, Jarad $9
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