NBA In-Season Tournament pick, odds

For once, the NBA made a great decision. The In-Season Tournament has been pure entertainment. 

After Indiana and New Orleans punched tickets to the semifinals on Monday, the Lakers, Suns, Bucks and Knicks compete for a trip to the semifinals on Tuesday.

I’m on the ‘dog in the early game, grabbing five points with the Knicks, but I favor the Lakers as short home favorites in the nightcap. 

Suns vs Lakers odds

Suns vs. Lakers prediction

(10 p.m. ET. TNT)

The Suns’ offense has been electric. They’re eighth in the NBA in points per 100 possessions (118.1) and seventh in schedule-adjusted offensive rating (117.2). 

They’re getting to the line at will (first in free throw rate, 26.7%). Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are pouring in a combined 59 points per game at incredible efficiency. 

Phoenix can score. 

But the Suns’ defense isn’t that good, ranking 21st in the NBA in schedule-adjusted defensive efficiency.

Durant, Booker, Grayson Allen and Bradley Beal, four of Phoenix’s five starters, are minus-defenders by Dunks and Threes’ Estimated plus-minus metric. 

The key to this game is the Lakers’ size advantage. 

They can defend behind this size. The Lakers have rim protection behind Anthony Davis and LeBron James, and they defend without fouling, ranking second in free-throw rate allowed (15.1%).

Booker and KD won’t be able to get to the rim or the charity stripe in this game.

Meanwhile, the Lakers love getting to the rim, ranking fifth in percentage of shots taken at the rim (36.5%) and first in shooting on those attempts (71.8%).

In those stats, the Suns rank 20th (33.9%) and 22nd (67.6%). Jusuf Nurkic is an OK rim protector and Durant is averaging over a block per game, but that’s it. The Suns rank 25th in the NBA in blocks per game (5.8).

The size advantage will be significant Tuesday night in L.A. The Lakers can’t score against elite defenses, but they’ll generate interior buckets against mediocre units and the Suns qualify as that. 

Ultimately, however, the home-court advantage may be the deciding factor.

The Lakers are 8-2 at home this year and 8-1 agains the spread as a home favorite – the latter mark trails only the Nuggets among NBA teams, who are 9-0 as home favorites so far. 

Betting on the NBA?

The Lakers haven’t been good against the spread in these spots, but we can disregard that, given the line is hanging around a PK.

There’s no need to lay the points here. We can bet on LeBron and Co. to pull out another home victory. 

I’ll put my hard-earned money behind the Lakers between the size and home-court advantages. 

I also think James is fired up for the NBA’s first In-Season Tournament. I feel he wants to win this inaugural event, adding another star to his Hall of Fame resume. 

Suns vs Lakers pick

Lakers ML (-115) at Caesars | Play to ML (-120)