There’s been a lot of ugly football games this season, but Thursday night may take the cake.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky will take on the two-win New England Patriots and Bailey Zappe in a game where the total sits at just 30 points.
Despite being outscored by 37 points this season, the Steelers are 7-5 and in the thick of the AFC playoff race.
Our Action Network luck rankings has Pittsburgh as the second-luckiest team in football based on prior games, while the Patriots are 29th.
Because of this, I believe the Patriots are undervalued as six-point underdogs.
It’s hard to believe how bad this team is, but the Steelers should not be this heavy of a favorite.
Last week, New England gave up six total points and still did not cover (+5.5).
It’s ugly and a hold-your-nose spot, but it has to be done.
The prop market is also in current flux, with injuries starting to pile up for the Patriots.
Demario Douglas (concussion) and Kayshon Boutte (shoulder) our out for tonight’s game, and DeVante Parker (knee) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle) both carry a questionable tags. Both, however, are trending toward playing.
With Douglas sitting out, there is a receiver I am targeting on the Patriots side, and that’s Smith-Schuster.
His receiving yards line is a paltry 13.5, a number that he should eclipse within two receptions.
Not only is it a revenge game for Smith-Schuster, his first against Pittsburgh since leaving in 2021, but his matchup is ideal against this dominant Steelers defense.
Pittsburgh’s vaunted front seven should be applying pressure on Zappe pretty consistently, which will in turn lead to quicker and shorter passes.
That benefits Smith-Schuster, who has an average target depth of 6.5 yards.
The last two weeks, he’s also lined up in the slot over half the time. That is the Achilles’ heel of this Steelers defense, which ranks 31st in DVOA to the WR3 position.
The rest of this Patriots offense will have its hands full. The Steelers are top 10 against WR1s, tight ends and running backs.
We’ve seen big games against the Steelers from Elijah Moore (60 yards), Jayden Reed (84) and Kyle Philips (68) out of the slot in the last five games.
Smith-Schuster should be next on that list with Douglas sitting.
Rhamondre Stevenson is out this week as well for New England, which could lead to a more pass-heavy approach by the Patriots.
Ezekiel Elliott is next in line and saw 17 carries last week, but he was ineffective (3.1 yards per carry).
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As an underdog of nearly a touchdown and given Smith-Schuster’s snap participation at 92 percent last week, this is a great spot for the receiver.
Although he’s come close the last two weeks, it’s been a month since he’s cleared 13.5 yards in a single game. However, in this game, Smith-Schuster sets up to be the perfect safety valve for Zappe underneath.
The Steelers also play man coverage at a 33 percent rate, fifth-most in the NFL.
That is perfect for Smith-Schuster, who should be the No. 1 receiver tonight for New England in terms of yards per routes run against man coverage.
He’s also been targeted on 62 percent of his routes run against man.
It’s all systems go for Smith-Schuster.
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