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In politics there are few more valuable tricks than persuading people that something is inevitable. So before we turn our eyes to the more important matter of the UK’s new government, I hope readers will indulge a final gaze at the radioactive rubble that is Britain’s right.
Because it is important to nail one myth. There is nothing inevitable about the continued rise of Nigel Farage or his radical-right Reform UK.
To hear the hype on the right in recent days, you might imagine Reform was destined to become, at least, the official opposition. Pundits opine that the Conservative party as we know it will never win again and obligingly transcribe Farage’s warning that he is now “coming for Labour”.
There is no denying Reform UK’s breakthrough or ignoring the threat. If voters conclude that mainstream politics no longer works for them they will turn to unconventional solutions. (Though Brexit should have sated that appetite.)
But a sense of proportion is required about a party that holds five seats in parliament and failed to attract 86 per cent of the vote — Reform won just 226,000 more votes than Ukip in the 2015 election. And remember, the more credible and successful SDP also once intended to break the mould of British politics — until the mould broke them.
This is not to dismiss the radical right. It is easy to construct the theory of how the Tories will be forced on to Farage’s agenda or be leapfrogged by him. He is a formidable communicator. Reform will be taken more seriously by voters and its near 100 second places will allow for more effective targeting next time. It also has a coherent appeal to angry Leavers and white working-class voters.
Politics is dividing between those whose political views are still forged by their economic position (their job, home, prospects) and those for whom a sense of identity is slipping away and who are drawn to politicians who offer definition in culture, nation and nativist economic solutions. Trust in politics has plummeted. A struggling economy benefits radical parties. As one Labour minister notes: “It’s hard to do social democracy on 1 per cent growth.” The greatest threat comes if Labour fails and the primary opposition is populist.
So there is a path but there are also substantial obstacles. Farage has a history of feuding. He must turn Reform from a pirate ship into a national party, shedding its toxic activists en route. Without electoral reform his ambitions are capped. The most viable path remains his traditional one of scaring the Tories on to his agenda.
An improving economy and sense of hope is the best defence against Faragism. Sir Keir Starmer has made a strong start, and shows a sense of purpose, though the first days are the easiest. By emphasising his broken public service inheritance, he hopes to buy time and latitude from voters. Progress will drag political discourse back to the centre.
Starmer also needs to deny populists their best tunes. First by delivering on his growth and reform mission but also by offering a credible answer on immigration, making the case for it where it is necessary and controlling it elsewhere. To this end it was probably a mistake to rule out Sir Tony Blair’s call for all citizens to have a unique digital identity card.
The Tories meanwhile must regroup. They do need to win back some of Reform’s votes, but they should dismiss the notion that their future lies in Faragism. The pollster Focaldata notes that the share of the 2019 Tory vote lost to Reform was, at 23 per cent, the same as that lost to Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens. This collapse was due to widespread disgust at their record rather than specific policy positions. Shifting right will cost votes elsewhere.
The Tories still have two assets denied to Farage, a record of winning and the ability to appeal to a broad base. It is no fluke that the more successful radical right parties in Europe are those managing to soften their image. Voters’ future fire will be aimed at Labour, and Farage is toxic to liberal and modern-minded voters such as the graduates and young suburban families who the Conservatives must win back.
But first the Conservatives must appear to want them. The party must decide it does not want to be Reform, which is all anger and no solutions. They cannot out-Farage Farage but they can limit his appeal by rebuilding their claim to offer a credible, alternative government. The Tory party must choose to be serious again.
This does risk a permanent split on the right which some feel will force an electoral pact. But this is a smaller threat than leaving only one major party on the centre ground. And before the Tories surrender they should try to beat Farage.
It will not be easy. There is a dearth of Tory leadership talent. To see this former electoral lion in recent months is to understand why a pack of political hyenas might fancy their chances. The battle to be heard will pull it instinctively towards aggressive oppositionalism. It too will have to address immigration. But above all it needs to start sounding like a broad-based, grown-up party with a viable economic strategy. A party that is comfortable with modernity; that seeks votes in the cities, and is alive to the concerns of families.
None of this is to say Farage cannot supersede the Tories or force them to become his kind of party. That risk is very real. But it is not inevitable. The first step towards preventing it is for the Conservatives to decide they want to.
robert.shrimsley@ft.com
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