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Britain’s prisons are close to breaking point. The most recent government figures show the total incarcerated population of England and Wales is about 87,360 — just shy of the current prison capacity of 88,818. Before long, courts could grind to a halt and police may have to slow the rate of arrests, the head of a prison governors’ body warned last week. The stretched prison system is just one of several public services left in a dire state by the Conservative government. With public safety at risk, it is also one of the most pressing issues facing the new Labour government.
Although the number of crimes reported by households has been on a downward trend since the mid-1990s, Britain’s criminal justice system has been strained for well over a decade. Police, prison and justice budgets were among the hardest hit by the Conservatives’ austerity programme in the 2010s. The average custodial sentence has also lengthened, partly due to more convictions for violent crimes. Court backlogs have raised the population of prisoners on remand, and recalls due to parole violations have also picked up significantly since 2019.
There could be a shortfall of about 8,000 prison places by 2028, according to the Institute for Government. But before the government can make the much needed reforms and investments to begin correcting the longer-term problem, it must first free up prison space to avert the more immediate capacity crisis. Building new prisons would take too long and cramming more prisoners into existing facilities raises human rights and safety concerns.
That means difficult decisions are needed. To avoid busting capacity limits, the government will have to temporarily triage the lowest risk offenders, to ensure higher risk ones are prioritised for imprisonment. It must do so without putting the public in harm’s way or impinging on the judicial process. Labour is expected shortly to announce a reduction to the minimum time some low-risk offenders need to serve in custody — a sensible step to free up capacity quickly. Other options include placing low-risk offenders under house arrest in the first instance, or extending the length of suspended sentences. Probation support will need to be raised.
These measures will buy time to make more substantive improvements to the prison system. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has made a promising start, appointing James Timpson — a businessman who has worked with ex-offenders — as a prisons minister. Improving the problems in the system requires a deep understanding of how it works, and a business-like focus on delivery.
First, the government should follow through on its manifesto promises to build more prisons and ease court backlogs. Second, more focus needs to be placed on rehabilitation and supporting prison staff. About one in four offenders released from custody go on to reoffend. Improved training, employment and mental health support can help prisoners better integrate back into society on release. This has been central to the success of Norway’s prison system, where recidivism rates are among the lowest in the world. Third, sentencing guidelines need to be reviewed to assess whether they are proportionate and when non-custodial sentences may be more appropriate.
The best way to alleviate pressure on the prison system, however, is to ensure people do not go there in the first place. Blunted economic opportunity and higher crime rates tend to go hand in hand. That means the government will need to make strides in reducing poverty, and boosting the prospects of left-behind places, where antisocial behaviour is a key concern.
Britain’s prisons cannot be reformed overnight. Improvements will require money, and public finances are tight. But how much it has managed to ease pressures on the criminal justice system by the end of this parliamentary term will be a decent indicator of how well Starmer’s government has lived up to its promise to return politics to “public service”.
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