It would be difficult to find two teams that derive their runs in a more polar-opposite way than the Guardians and Yankees.
Cleveland hit 127 homers this season — exactly half of the Yankees’ 254. The entire Guardians outfield hit 24 homers in 2022, the same as Aaron Judge hit — in June and July combined.
The Yankees produced 50.8 percent of their runs via homers (first in the majors). The Guardians were at 31.8 percent (28th).
Remember how the Yankees came unglued in the 2007 Division Series in Cleveland when midges descended on Joba Chamberlain? Well, it is midge season again — something to keep in mind when this best-of-five shifts to Cleveland for Games 3-4. But the Yankees have to be ready for pests in New York, too. That is the Cleveland offense — Jose Ramirez and the gnats.
One scout called the Guardians “disruptive.” Another said, “They are going to put pressure on you.” A hitting coach offered: “They will not get outhustled.”
Oh, the irony that the Guardians beat the Rays two games to none in the wild-card series, accumulating all their runs via a two-run homer by Ramirez in Game 1 and a walk-off home run by Oscar Gonzalez in the 15th inning of Game 2. That they scored just three runs in 24 innings and advanced highlights another factor about the Guardians: They can really pitch, too; they held the Rays to one run.
To understand what the Yankees face this week in trying to get back to the ALCS, we asked three scouts, one coach and one executive familiar with the Guardians to help with a scouting report. Here is what this panel views as most vital for this Division Series:
Be Defensive
The Guardians struck out in just 18.2 percent of their plate appearances — 1.3 percent fewer than the Astros (who were second best). The ball is going to be in play. At least that should be the theory.
But the Yankees went 5-1 against Cleveland this year and the Guardians hit just .197 and struck out in 31.6 percent of their plate appearances. Again listen for the irony siren: Cleveland hit seven homers in the six games. The Yankees hit 12 and outscored the Guardians 38-14.
All six of those games were played before the All-Star break, when the Yankees were a machine. Still, against the Rays, the Guardians were just 13-for-76 (.171) and their only extra-base hits were the two homers.
“They usually need a chain of events to score even one run,” Scout 1 said. “They create runs when they have their action guys on base.”
Cleveland stole 119 bases (third in the majors). They have five players with at least 18 steals — Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario and Myles Straw — no other team had more than three. Straw was 21 of 22 in steals and swiped third base all three times he tried. But he also had just a .294 on-base percentage.
Conversely, no team shut down the running game like the Yankees. Their attention to holding runners on was part of their overall improved defense. The Yankees held teams to an MLB-low 49 steals (the Guardians had one in the six games) and they threw out 36 percent of runners, second best in the majors.
Still, speed is the Guardians’ game. They were first in infield hits at 160 and third in the majors in triples at 31 and sacrifice bunts at 22.
“They play unlike anyone else now,” Scout 2 said. “They are an extreme-contact group. They rely on stringing hits together and putting extreme pressure on you. They are good going first to third. They all run hard out of the box. [Cleveland’s big first baseman] Josh Naylor might not be fast, but he gives you everything going down the line.”
Scout 3 said: “If you take a step back on a ground ball, they will beat it out. Any hitch and you won’t turn a double play.”
The Yankees are much better defensively this year than in recent seasons, and better yet since putting Harrison Bader in center field. Two areas to watch: 1. Isiah Kiner-Falefa can be mistake-prone with both bobbles and throws under duress. 2. After so many years with a high-strikeout group of relievers, such as Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller, this unsettled Yankees bullpen does not have the same swing-and-miss proclivities. These relievers’ generalized strength is soft contact and ground balls. Will that be converted into outs late in games?
Don’t Let Ramirez Beat You
This from Scout 1: “Naylor can hit a homer. So can Gonzalez. But the way they turn a 2-1 lead to a 5-1 lead is Ramirez.”
A moment here to reflect on Ramirez, who is building a Cooperstown career without much fanfare. He finished in the top six for AL MVP in four of the last five years and probably will again in 2022. His 416 extra-base hits since 2017 are 16 more than anyone else. The switch hitter led the AL in doubles this year (44), while hitting 29 homers, stealing 20 bases and playing his usual stellar third base.
The only players with more RBIs than Ramirez’s 126 were Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso, who each had 131. Ramirez drove in 47 more runs than anyone on his team. He also hit nine more homers than anyone on his team while Judge hit 16 more homers than anyone in the majors. Yet Ramirez was intentionally walked more times (20) than Judge (19).
“When it comes to controlling an at-bat, Ramirez reminds me of prime Miggy [Miguel Cabrera],” Scout 1 said. “It feels like he can do anything he wants or do whatever you need. If you pitch him away, he will dump one to the opposite field. He has that pull gear early in counts. And he is so clutch [.331 average and 1.073 OPS with runners in scoring position]. You cannot let him beat you. You pitch around him. You walk him. They just don’t have the power up and down the lineup otherwise to beat you.”
The executive cited another key: “You can’t let Kwan and Rosario get on in front of him. [The Guardians] thrive when they have guys on base. You pay attention to them. You make mistakes with their action guys on base. Ramirez is the best player on the team by a significant margin. They are a sum of their parts team — plus Ramirez.”
Against the Yankees’ scheduled Games 1 and 3 starters, Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino, Ramirez is a combined 10-for-29 with five homers. He is 0-for-7 with four strikeouts against Game 2 starter Nestor Cortes.
Cortes is a lefty. Zack Britton’s inability to make it back in full after Tommy John surgery and Chapman’s meltdown on and off the field are a big deal because both are lefties. Cleveland is much better against righties, and their two main power sources — Ramirez and Naylor, especially — are unplugged versus lefties. Lefty Wandy Peralta’s return from injury should be valuable to the Yankees. And no one should be surprised, should this series go the distance, if Cortes starts Game 5 on short rest.
This season, Cole and Cortes combined to make four starts against the Guardians, limiting them to 11 hits in 25 innings while walking six and striking out 29 — but they did give up four homers.
The Lindor Trade
The Mets’ Francisco Lindor is probably going to finish in the top 10 for NL MVP. But Gimenez, part of the package the Mets sent to Cleveland in the deal for Lindor, is likely to do the same in the AL. He actually finished second in the league to Judge with 7.2 Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference version). That was better than Ramirez (6.0) and Lindor (5.4).
It speaks to Gimenez’s all-around game. He hit .297 and showed some pop with 17 homers. He stole 20 bases. He is an excellent defender at second and at shortstop, though Rosario (also part of the Lindor deal) made 141 starts there, including both wild-card games.
The executive said: “You see Gold Gloves coming [for Gimenez]. You see growth contributing offensively. He has a chance to be a superstar.”
Rosario is basically what you remember with the Mets — but as Scout 3 said: “Tito [manager Terry Francona] is good at getting the best out of what you do rather than harp on what you can’t.”
So despite just a .312 on-base percentage, Rosario hits second with a major league-leading nine triples, in front of Kwan, who is tied for second with seven triples.
As Scout 1 said: “[Rosario] is a hacker offensively. But he’s also Hunter Pence. The last guy you want up when contact is needed — like Pence he is going to find a way.”
The Start of Something
Keep in mind that two of the losses Cleveland endured this season against the Yankees were started by Kirk McCarthy and Eli Morgan (now a valuable reliever). The Guardians’ lone win came on perhaps the best-pitched game against the Yankees this year — when Triston McKenzie held them to one hit in seven innings while striking out seven. McKenzie will start Game 3.
Cal Quantrill, who will start Game 1, limited the Yankees to three runs in 6 ¹/₃ innings in April. Shane Bieber, the Game 2 starter, did not face the Yankees this season. The Guardians ace allowed homers to Judge and Gleyber Torres and seven runs in 4 ²/₃ innings in a first-round playoff opener against the Yankees in 2020. That was his Cy Young season.
That was part of what has been an abysmal playoff period for the AL Central. From the point at which Cleveland led the Cubs 3-1 in the 2016 World Series through last year, the AL Central was 4-22 in postseason games, without winning a round.
That ended with the Guardians beating the Rays in the wild card this past weekend. Is that a sign of a new day for the division? Or is that simply an indication the Rays can’t hit or play well on the road (35-48, including the playoffs). The Yankees eliminated an AL Central team four times (Minnesota and Cleveland twice each) from 2017-21 and were 9-2 overall in the games.
The signs of whether the teams are in different weight classes will be evident if Quantrill, Bieber and McKenzie can control the Yankees’ power quotient or not. All are extreme strike-throwers. All are right-handed, yet have a better OPS against lefties, which theoretically helps the Yankees’ heavily righty lineup. But Giancarlo Stanton is 2-for-20 without an extra-base hit versus the Guardians’ three main starters. Judge is 1-for-19 — the one being his playoff homer off Bieber.
Bieber’s velocity has dipped on average 3 mph since his Cy Young year. Still, Scout 2 said, “He can throw three pitches [fastball, cutter, slider] in any count and can place it in the glove as good as anybody.” Scout 1 said, “He’s as close to [Greg] Maddux as we have.”
Of McKenzie, the executive noted a pitcher who can work at the top of the zone well with his fastball and said, “The stuff is off the charts good.”
Bieber and McKenzie held Tampa Bay to one run on five hits in a combined 13 ²/₃ innings in the wild-card round. Are the Yankees just a different offensive animal, though — especially at home?
Clase Closed
The executive said. “[The Guardians] are not going to beat themselves. You have to play pretty clean baseball against them and find a way to pressure their starters. If you don’t, they have a path to a win. They will scratch out a few runs. Their starters are good and go deep and shrink the end and then Tito has a number of pen arms to go to.”
The low point of this season for the Guardians was through May 29, when they were 19-24 and 7 ¹/₂ games back in the AL Central. They were 73-46 thereafter (second best to Houston in the AL). The bullpen in those 119 games had a .214 batting average against, a 2.98 ERA and a 26.8 strikeout percentage. The pen then authored 11 ¹/₃ shutout innings to eliminate the Rays.
At the heart of the success is Cleveland’s closer. Two of the scouts acknowledged Edwin Diaz, but both said Emmanuel Clase “is the best reliever in baseball.” Scout 3 drilled down: “He throws 101 mph cutters and a decent breaking ball. Everything moves like crazy, yet he still throws strikes. He keeps guys off the barrel. There are a lot of ground balls.”
Clase led the majors with 42 saves. He blew just four. One came April 24 at Yankee Stadium when a ninth-inning Kiner-Falefa double tied the score and a Torres single won it. He recorded the save in his other outing against the Yankees on July 3, but walked two in an inning.
The Yankees lost two pitchers in the Rule 5 draft after the 2020 season. Garrett Whitlock was huge in helping Boston reach the playoffs last year. Trevor Stephan did the same this year for Cleveland. With a fastball, slider and devastating split, Stephan struck out 30.7 percent of batters he faced in 2022.
James Karinchak, a Yankee fan growing up in Walden, N.Y., had a brilliant rookie year in 2020 that was upended when he inherited the bases loaded from Carlos Carrasco in the second and clinching game in the first round against the Yankees and permitted a grand slam to Gio Urshela. He struggled so much after the sticky-substance ban went into place last year — his spin and velocity cratering — that he was eventually optioned to the minors. This year his spin and velocity climbed back up and on Sept. 11, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli asked crew chief Ted Barrett to check Karinchak’s hair. Karinchak was not ejected.
As we saw with Buck Showalter asking for Joe Musgrove’s ears to be checked in the Padres-Mets wild-card finale, this could become a factor in the playoffs. Of course, you better make sure your own pitchers are, um, sticking to the rules if you request this of the other side.
This version of Karinchak, with his unorthodox delivery and over-the-top release point and plunging curveball, teams with Stephan and Clase to provide a strong endgame. The loss of Nick Sandlin (strained upper back) during the wild-card series is not insignificant in combating the Yankees’ righty might — righty batters hit just .149 with a .503 OPS vs. Sandlin this year.
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