China has developed 400 nuclear warheads and is on course to expand its arsenal to 1,500 weapons by the middle of the next decade as its continues a dramatic expansion of its nuclear forces, according to a Pentagon report.
The Pentagon said Beijing “probably accelerated” its nuclear expansion last year and was on track to have a stockpile of 1,500 nuclear weapons by 2035. That would give it almost as many warheads as the US and Russia have deployed under the limits of the New Start arms control agreement, although China would still lag behind the two powers in total number of weapons.
“The People’s Liberation Army plans to basically complete modernisation of its national defence and armed forces by 2035. If China continues the pace of its nuclear expansion, it will probably field a stockpile of about 1,500 warheads by its 2035 timeline,” the Pentagon said in its annual report to Congress on the Chinese military.
“Everything related to the Chinese nuclear expansion has been in some way surprising . . . They’ve moved at a pretty rapid pace,” said a senior US defence official, adding that the US also worried about its development of fast breeder reactors, which produce plutonium for possible use in nuclear weapons.
The Pentagon projections come as Washington becomes increasingly concerned about the rise of the two other big nuclear-equipped nations. In its recently released national security strategy, the Biden administration said that by the 2030s the US “for the first time will need to deter two major nuclear powers”.
Washington believes that China under President Xi Jinping is moving away from its decades-long policy of having a “lean and effective” nuclear arsenal, meaning a limited number of nuclear weapons that China believes are necessary to respond to any nuclear attack on its territory. But US officials say China has shown no willingness to engage in any talks about nuclear weapons.
The Pentagon said that although China had a policy of “no first use” for nuclear weapons — meaning it would only ever use them if it came under nuclear attack — it believed there were situations in which Beijing might abandon that policy. These include “consideration of a nuclear strike in response to a non-nuclear attack threatening the viability of China’s nuclear forces or C2 [command and control]”.
A second senior defence official said Beijing was probably expanding its arsenal because of a range of factors, including its view that the US was trying to contain China, but also owing to tensions with other countries.
“They’re also thinking probably about India when they take into account the requirements for their nuclear force,” he said.
Underscoring the rapid expansion, the Pentagon said the PLA last year launched about 135 ballistic missiles for testing and training — more than the rest of the world combined, excluding launches in conflict zones.
The report also confirmed that China in 2021 conducted a highly advanced test of a hypersonic weapon, which was first reported by the Financial Times. It said the “hypersonic glide vehicle” flew 40,000km around the world for more than 100 minutes, marking the greatest distance and time flown by a Chinese land-attack weapon.
The report comes as tensions mount over Taiwan, particularly after China conducted large-scale military drills to protest against the visit to Taipei in August by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The Pentagon said that even before that visit, China had in 2021 conducted increasingly frequent and realistic “island-seizure” exercises.
The Pentagon said China was also investing heavily in space, including everything from intelligence assets to weapons to counter an adversary in space, such as kinetic-kill missiles and ground-based lasers. It said China had more than 260 intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) satellite systems, which marked an almost doubling since 2018.
“The PLA owns and operates about half of the world’s ISR systems,” the Pentagon said in the report, which added that China was developing increasingly capable satellites. “These improvements increase China’s monitoring capabilities — including observation of US aircraft carriers.”
The Pentagon said China was developing electronic warfare capabilities, in addition to offensive cyber space capabilities and directed-energy weapons. “China is employing more sophisticated satellite operations and is probably testing dual-use technologies in space,” it said.
The report said China was also attempting to expand its overseas logistics and infrastructure further from the mainland. The PLA has a base in Djibouti, but the Pentagon said China had considered more than a dozen countries for possible expansion, including Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates, Kenya and Tajikistan.
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