It’s tough to know when to take a team seriously, when to treat it as a true contender. Several teams climb up the polls each season, but nearly every College Football Playoff ultimately ends up with the usual suspects. Only one team in the playoff era, LSU in the 2019 season, has crashed the party and come out on top.
I’ve been slow to see Tennessee as a national title contender, for several reasons: The Volunteers likely would have to beat both of the national title game participants from last year to get to the playoff. They are two years removed from a 3-7 season and 21 years removed from their most recent top-10 finish. They hadn’t beaten a top-15 team in four years, losing all four opportunities last season with Josh Heupel and Hendon Hooker. And they needed overtime to win at Pittsburgh (4-4), struggled to put away Florida (4-4) and still have the 122nd-ranked pass defense.
But none of that matters anymore. The Vols destroyed LSU in Death Valley, toppled Alabama and dominated Kentucky. Tennessee has earned the No. 1 ranking in the nation, thanks to its top-ranked offense.
The under-discussed second-ranked offense belongs to No. 3 Georgia, which hasn’t lost a home game in three years. The Bulldogs’ defense is also second-best nationally, allowing 10.5 points per game. They have the nation’s top-ranked red-zone offense, elite pass rushers and a standout secondary. They claimed a 41-17 win in Knoxville last season. And in a matchup with Pac-12-leading Oregon — the nation’s third-ranked offense — the Bulldogs prevailed 49-3 on Sept. 3. (The Ducks have scored at least 41 points in every game since then.)
The defending national champion will regain the nation’s No. 1 ranking and hold serve in the biggest game of the regular season, but Tennessee (+8) has too much firepower to fall by double digits.
Texas Tech (+9.5) over TCU
The Horned Frogs have kept playing with fire and their perfect record will soon go up in flames. Next week’s game at Texas is the top candidate and the Red Raiders could benefit from the Big 12’s first-place team looking ahead. TCU, which has won its past four games by an average of 7.5 points and has been in danger of losing each contest, and its 106th-ranked pass defense will endure another stressful day against Tech’s 10th-ranked passing attack.
Ohio State (-38.5) over NORTHWESTERN
The Buckeyes survived their first true test of the season and will return to their regularly scheduled beatdown victories. While Ohio State leads the nation in average scoring margin (its 32.0 per game is on pace to be the nation’s highest mark since 2019), the last-place Wildcats are trying to figure out why a $270 million practice facility hasn’t made them contenders.
Risk Free First Bet up to $1,000 with NPBONUS
New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. (Welcome Offer not available in NY & PA) Full T&C apply.
First bet up To $1,250 On Caesars
New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.
No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000
21+. New customers only. AZ, CT, IA, IL, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, WV, WY only. T&C apply
Bet up to $1,000, Get Refunded if You Lose with Promo Code NYPOST1000
21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV. T&C apply.
Michigan State (+16) over ILLINOIS
The Spartans have covered half their games against (two) ranked opponents this season. Mel Tucker is earning every penny.
COLORADO (+31.5) over Oregon
Two years ago, the Buffaloes’ Hendon Hooker was the 35th-ranked quarterback in the country, according to Pro Football Focus. Fellow Heisman Trophy candidate Bo Nix was ranked 95th for the Ducks. There is hope for Tennessee transfer J.T. Shrout yet.
INDIANA (+14) over Penn State
The Nittany Lions will take more than a week to recover from their season-crushing loss to Ohio State. Coach James Franklin has long struggled getting his team prepared after far less emotional losses. Dating to 2014, Penn State is 8-22-1 against the spread following an outright loss, which marks the worst such mark against the spread in FBS during that span, according to ESPN.
PITTSBURGH (-3.5) over Syracuse
It’s difficult to feel confident with either side without knowing the status of Orange quarterback Garrett Shrader, but the line strongly hints at Syracuse’s third straight loss.
Alabama (-13.5) over LSU
Nick Saban enjoys most visits to his old stomping grounds, and he has won his past five trips to Death Valley by an average of 17.8 points. The introduction of new LSU coach Brian Kelly — whose Notre Dame teams were dominated by Alabama in the BCS title game and College Football Playoff — to the rivalry only makes the mismatch more lopsided.
Texas (-2.5) over KANSAS STATE
Sell your Wildcats stock. It will never be higher than it has been following their stunning 48-0 win last Saturday over Oklahoma State. Buy low on the Longhorns — and quarterback Quinn Ewers — who’ve carried the taste of their collapse against the Cowboys for two weeks and have a strong defensive front built to slow Kansas State’s run-first attack.
Michigan (-26.5) over RUTGERS
The past two meetings have been decided by a touchdown. Michigan won the previous five by nearly 44 points per game. A matchup of the Wolverines’ third-ranked defense and the Scarlet Knights’ 126th-ranked offense will bring back a blowout, with Greg Schiano throwing freshman Gavin Wimsatt (one touchdown, three interceptions, 40 percent completion rate) into a volcano for his second Big Ten start.
Clemson (-4) over NOTRE DAME
The books are begging us to take the Tigers, but I’m calling their bluff. Treat this as if the undefeated Tigers and unranked Fighting Irish are playing at a neutral site. Notre Dame has failed to cover a home game this season — losing outright to Marshall and Stanford — and will struggle to move the chains against the ACC’s top defense.
MIAMI (+7.5) over Florida State
The Hurricanes have the nation’s worst record (1-7) against the spread this season. Misguided preseason predictions are partly to blame, but now the perception of the team has swung too far in the opposite direction. Take the points in the historically tight series, decided by five points or fewer in six of the past eight years.
Ucla (-10.5) over ARIZONA STATE
Bruins running back Zach Charbonnet leads the nation with more than 7.5 yards per carry. The Sun Devils’ putrid run defense — ranked 100th in yards per carry allowed (4.6) — will help the senior cushion his lead.
California (+21) over USC
Despite all of the Oklahoma-flavored fun injected into the Trojans’ offense by Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams, they haven’t beaten a conference foe by more than 20 points this season. The Sooners-style 83rd-ranked defense won’t allow it.
Best bets: Texas Tech, Clemson, California
This season: 63-69-3
2014-21 record: 1,030-970-19
Credit: Source link
