There is an old NBA adage: Buyer beware the leading scorer on a bad team.
That didn’t stop Knicks president Leon Rose from taking a deep plunge — though not to the max — on RJ Barrett after a season in which he averaged 20 points on 40.8 percent shooting as the Knicks struggled to a 37-45 record.
“The Knicks normally overpay for decent players,’’ one coaching source said. “Is RJ ever going to be more than a low efficiency, high usage scorer? Maybe. But maybe not. That’s the point. But they think he’s got a lot of room to get better.’’
While his new contract extension is a less-than-the-maximum extension afforded to studs like Ja Morant, it still will pay him $108 million guaranteed over four years ($120 million if he reaches incentives such as All-Star/All-NBA/All-Defense selections). He stands to make $28 million in 2023-24 after his rookie deal ends after the upcoming season.
“If they don’t pay him as the third pick [he was in 2019], then it would look like Scott Perry made a mistake,’’ one talent evaluator said. “And you can make the case now Darius Garland was the better pick.”
One NBA scout, during Barrett’s disappointing rookie season, when he didn’t get named to any of the two All-Rookie Teams, nicknamed the former Duke standout, “Boxscore Barrett.’’ Though some scouts have come to appreciate his game more now, many feel he’s only the third or fourth option on a very good team.
“RJ is a really good player, but only if he’s surrounded by a really good team,” the talent evaluator said. “[The Knicks] are a mediocre team, and they have a lot of money tied up in three players (Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle being the other two) who are third/fourth options. That would be the concern. It’s where do they go from here with this much money tied into three players. Are these contracts going to be tradeable if need be, or you’re stuck with them?’’
It’s true, Barrett hasn’t done enough winning yet to earn leaguewide respect. But there is much to appreciate about the rugged 6-foot-7 Canadian with a work ethic born of his basketball family, a willingness to bull-rush the basket and a desire to embrace the world’s biggest media market.
Only two players in NBA history have racked up more points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers than Barrett before turning 22 — LeBron James and Luka Doncic.
Barrett’s greatest attribute, however, is his high motor, which revs whether the team is up 16 or down 16 in the final minute. It’s a trait that also has prompted some to view him as a stat stuffer, though that wouldn’t be the case without a lot of help from coach Tom Thibodeau, who keeps his key players in games up 16 or down 16.
When he posted back-to-back, 30-point games vs. Atlanta and Charlotte in March, Barrett twice scored buckets to reach 30 in the final moments of blowouts.
“You do notice he can score between six and eight points when the game has been decided either way,’’ one talent evaluator said.
That said, in clutch situations (possessions in the final five minutes with a five-point differential), according to NBA analytics guru John Schuhmann, Barrett shot 47.1 percent from the three-point arc (Randle shot 20 percent).
Contrary to a report, Utah CEO Danny Ainge never “coveted’’ Barrett as a key part of a potential Donovan Mitchell trade. In fact, some believe Ainge would rather flip Barrett elsewhere for more picks and prospects.
For now, though, Barrett is a major part of the Knicks’ plans. Thibodeau loves Barrett’s inner drive and ability to power to the rim at will. But he also judges Barrett’s slashing based on “rim reads” — a common Thibodeau phrase.
Behind the scenes, Thibodeau wants Barrett to become a more willing passer when he’s doubled and tripled on his forays instead of forcing himself through traffic. Most of his turnovers come as a result of his strong desire to be a finisher and not a distributor.
The Knicks coach also would like to see more of his frenetic energy on defense. (Which is something Carmelo Anthony’s coaches always lamented).
With his average athleticism, though, Barrett’s ceiling may not be much higher and his scoring average could be viewed as a matter of circumstance. Perhaps Brunson will help Barrett get better looks, as he did in Dallas with Doncic. But getting more spot-up three-point shots is not Barrett’s forte. Barrett’s three-point percentage went from 40.1 during the pandemic season to 34.6 in 2021-22.
Barrett’s effective field-goal shooting (which combines three-point and two-point field goals) also didn’t sparkle last season, coming in at a dull 46.6 percent — which ranked him a dismal 459th in the NBA.
That may be why one scout, when told of Barrett’s contract-extension figure, said, “For the fourth-best player on a good team? Ouch.’’
If Barrett vaults into the All-Star conversation, it will be because the Knicks are in playoff position. Only then will this contract extension look sweet. For now, pass the salt.
NBA still looking into tampering
The NBA is being “patient’’ as it continues to investigate potential tampering violations by the Knicks in signing Jalen Brunson to a four-year, $104 million package.
Sources, though, believe the Knicks ultimately will be punished and lose a draft pick.
The delay likely is due, in part, to the league’s desire to see what draft compensation the Knicks give up in a potential Donovan Mitchell trade with Utah, one that could conceivably cost New York six first-round picks. Once a deal is done, the NBA would know the potential range of draft penalties available.
One source says one major argument in favor of a tampering ruling is that the Brunson family — Jalen and Rick — were in Jamaica when free agency began. They declined to even talk to the Mavericks to see if they had a counter-offer to the Knicks’ package.
That the Brunsons were vacationing in the Caribbean suggests they already had a deal in place with the Knicks well before the July 1 start of free agency. Rick Brunson, of course, is a Knicks assistant coach, and Sam Rose, Jalen’s agent, is Leon Rose’s son.
And don’t forget the Knicks forfeited a lottery pick, along with Kemba Walker, to create cap space.
That would seem a high price to pay without knowing for certain the targeted player is ready to sign into the space.
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