Big news out of Indianapolis as Colts first-year head coach Shane Steichen announced Anthony Richardson will be his starting quarterback for Week 1 of the NFL season.
The announcement has sparked some interest in Richardson, specifically from the gambling community – he’s generating significant Offensive Rookie of the Year interest.
I’m here to tell you now… Don’t fall into that trap.
Richardson has the highest ceiling of any rookie quarterback, and Steichen is a great head coach who can develop him.
But the immediate future for Richardson and the Colts is murky.
Let’s talk about Richardson.
And then let’s talk about my betting pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
NFL Predictions 2023: Anthony Richardson’s Colts
The ceiling for Richardson is uncapped.
His arm strength is insane.
He can throw on the run and from all different arm angles.
He’s incredibly athletic and could develop into a devastating dual-action quarterback – in fact, he might be the most athletic quarterback prospect in NFL Draft history.
The league is trending toward more athletic quarterbacks, too.
The days of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees beating defenses with pre-snap motion is over.
Instead, you need quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, who can flip the field with their arms or legs.
A deep dive into Richardson’s skill set, and you realize he’s the ideal quarterback for the future NFL.
It’s even better he has a head coach that realizes this – Steichen spent the last few years as the offensive coordinator for the Eagles, specifically mentoring Jalen Hurts.
All that said, Richardson is an unprecedented experiment.
Almost no first-round quarterback in NFL history was as unproductive in college as Richardson.
Richardson completed only 53% of his passes with Florida last season.
Per Sports Info Solutions, Richardson ranked 95th in catchable pass rate and 106th in on-target rate (out of 114 NCAA quarterbacks.
Richardson finished 72nd in Pro Football Focus’s passing grades (out of 159 qualified quarterbacks).
He was 143rd in adjusted completion percentage (64.3%).
Not to mention that Richardson started only 13 FBS games and is only 21 years old.
Richardson’s ceiling is high, but he’s a project, far from a completed product.
There’s no reason to believe Richardson will be comfortable and effective in reading NFL defenses in his rookie season with the Colts.
Richardson will flash his athletic ability at times this year and show us that potential in spurts.
But asking Richardson to provide enough consistency over a 17-game NFL regular season to win an OROY award at this stage in his development is too much.
Instead, there’s another rookie I’m betting to win the award.
NFL Predictions 2023: Bijan Robinson’s Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons put a mobile quarterback (Marcus Mariota), a rookie running back (Tyler Allegier) and a converted wide receiver (Cordarrelle Patterson) behind a top-five offensive line last season.
The result was the third-best rushing attack in the NFL by total yards (2,718) and Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric (8.2%).
The Falcons were a rush-first and rush-only offense, calling more rush attempts per game than any team in the NFL (33).
Their 65% first-down rush rate was the highest since the 2014 Cowboys.
This season, the Falcons replace Mariota with second-year, unproven quarterback Desmond Ridder.
But they bring back all their other skill weapons, including four of their five offensive linemen from last season.
The Falcons used a second-round pick to snag guard Matthew Bergeron from Syracuse, adding to their depth.
The Falcons should continue playing to their strength. I expect Atlanta to run the ball a ton.
One of the biggest reasons why is their first-round pick.
The Falcons selected Texas running back Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick.
Robinson is a generational running back prospect.
He rushed for 3,400 yards and 33 touchdowns in 31 games with Texas, creating over 200 missed tackles and generating over 2,200 yards after contact.
Atlanta’s offensive line will open up huge holes, and Robinson will create extra yardage with his unbelievable elusiveness.
In a pass-happy NFL, the Falcons will be an incredibly dangerous offense behind their rushing attack.
Robinson could be one of the best running backs in the NFL this season, and he’s being injected into one of the most efficient, rush-happy offenses in the NFL behind one of the league’s best offensive lines.
Also, Robinson shows an interesting upside in the passing game.
He can catch passes out of the backfield and spread out wide, making him versatile enough to stay on the field for all three downs.
Robinson’s usage rate will be sky-high this season – he should top 300 touches.
I rarely bet the favorite in NFL Awards markets, but this one is too obvious.
I’m projecting close to 1,200 rushing yards and over 350 receiving yards, simply crazy numbers for a rookie running back.
The play: Offensive Rookie of the Year – Bijan Robinson (+300 at FanDuel)
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