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Ignition is the central process of nuclear fusion. The Lawrence Livermore laboratory in California has again achieved the milestone of a reaction delivering more energy than put into it. The next chain reaction will be in investment
Nuclear fusion is achieved by slamming together two hydrogen isotopes to make one atom of helium. That releases energy that is billed as clean, safe, and potentially limitless.
With a single reaction projected to deliver between 30 and 100 times the energy used to start it, a fusion plant might generate electricity at a cost as low as $25 per megawatt hour, according to a paper for the Royal Society by Nicholas Hawker, of UK-based start-up First Light Fusion. UK wind power costs £50/MWh.
We are nowhere near that. The US facility that delivered net energy gain cost $3.5bn to build. It produced only enough electricity to press a laundry load of shirts.
The breakthrough will nevertheless enthuse private start-ups and their backers. First Light Fusion, for example, is building a facility costing about £150mn. It only needs to perfect its energy delivery system — based on a cheaper stamp-sized projectile — to achieve ignition.
Amid the buzz, investors are rushing to position themselves. In the past year, the industry has attracted $1.4bn of additional private funding, bringing the total to more than $6bn, according to the Fusion Industry Association.
Start-ups are fielding calls from venture capital providers, pension funds, nuclear engineering companies and, of course, oil and gas groups. For the latter, a “fusion strategy” will now be de rigueur.
But commercial fusion lies decades away. The incipient industry will need to move from notionally powering a steam iron to supplying entire industries in reality.
Start-ups will need billions of dollars to build first-generation power plants. If all goes well, these will make smallish amounts of expensive electricity.
There is no doubt that Lawrence Livermore has achieved a scientific feat with potentially huge benefits. Predictable human nature guarantees two negative consequences. First, there will be a proliferation of fusion-themed new start-ups, many of them with little expertise or intellectual property. Second, some politicians and oil groups will assume the fusion breakthrough relieves them of the need to invest in proven renewables.
The Lex team is interested in hearing more from readers. Please tell us what you think the implications of the Lawrence Livermore tests will be in the comments section below
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