After a successful play on Central Michigan against Penn State for last week’s ugly underdog, the pain train travels to Kinnick Stadium on Saturday for Iowa against Michigan.
The No. 4 Wolverines passed their first true test of the 2022 season last Saturday, but a 34-27 win over Maryland isn’t anything to write home about, especially because Michigan closed as a 17.5-point favorite.
Maryland put up 397 yards of total offense and hung with the Wolverines the entire game, which is not a good sign for a defense that came into the season with question marks after it lost Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo to the NFL.
Five different Maryland receivers were credited with an explosive catch against Michigan, and the Wolverines barely created any pressure in the backfield. Iowa’s offense may be terrible, but its offensive line remains a strength and should be able to handle this Wolverines front seven.
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Remember, Michigan’s secondary was a question mark entering the season. After it faced three quarterbacks without a heartbeat, Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa had success getting the ball downfield with four Terps receivers averaging 13.0 yards or more per reception.
J.J. McCarthy will get another start under center for Michigan with Cade McNamara still recovering from an injury. After lighting it up against also-rans Hawaii and UConn, McCarthy struggled when he had to step up in class against Maryland.
Nevertheless, the Michigan offense ranks fifth in rushing success rate, 17th in line yards, 35th in passing success rate and 11th in finishing drives, but those numbers are likely a little inflated given the quality of competition.
Iowa’s strength of schedule also leaves a lot to be desired, but the Hawkeyes have yet to allow a team (South Dakota State, Iowa State, Nevada and Rutgers) put up more than 10 points in a game this season.
The Hawkeyes defense ranks 19th in rushing success rate, eighth in line yards, seventh in passing success rate and fifth in finishing drives, so they should match up well against an offense that has run the ball on 61 percent of snaps because the quarterback can’t be trusted.
There is very little margin for error for Iowa’s defense, though, as the offense sits outside the top-120 in rushing success rate, passing success rate, line yards and finishing drives.
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Quarterback Spencer Petras showed some signs of improvement against Rutgers last Saturday, but it’s still going to be a ground-and-pound approach from the Hawkeyes.
Backing an Iowa offense that has scored three touchdowns in four games is not the ideal way to spend a Saturday afternoon, but the defense should be stout enough to keep the Hawkeyes in a matchup against a Michigan team that is overvalued based on its opening schedule.
And with neither quarterback in great form, both Michigan and Iowa will lean heavily on the ground game, which keeps the clock moving and shortens the game. That’s always good news for underdogs, especially when they’re getting more than a touchdown.
Grab Iowa +10.5.
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