Zach Wilson is officially no longer a rookie.
Yes, Wilson already has made four starts in his second season in the NFL, but because of injuries, Sunday’s win over the Broncos was just Wilson’s 17th career start. So he has now played a full NFL season.
Still, there are plenty of questions about Wilson as the Jets try to turn a 5-2 start into a playoff run. At the moment, they have been winning without major contributions from the 2021 No. 2 pick, but everyone knows there will be games when the Jets will have to lean on him to carry the offense. Can he do it?
We don’t know. But we took a look at the numbers from his first 17 starts and combined that with having watched all of those starts live to come up with 17 thoughts and observations about Wilson through his first full season as a starter.
First, the numbers: 7-10 record, 271-for-484 (56 percent), 3,027 yards, 10 TDs, 13 INTs, 6.3 yards per attempt, 178.1 yards per game, 70.5 QB rating, 52 sacks, 2 fourth-quarter comebacks, 5 rushing TDs, 1 receiving TD.
Now let’s break down what that really means:
1. Wilson’s career can almost be divided into three parts. In his first five starts before he was injured (we’re throwing out the game at New England that he left in the second quarter), Wilson averaged 34.2 passing attempts per game. The Jets were relying heavily on the player they drafted No. 2 overall.
While Wilson was out with a knee injury in 2021, the Jets’ offense looked better with Mike White and Joe Flacco operating it. It is clear the Jets realized that, which led to the second part of Wilson’s career: an awkward three weeks when the team was trying to figure out how Wilson fit back in. He had a career-high 42 pass attempts against the Saints during this time and a career-high 23 completions against the Eagles.
After that stretch, the third stage of Wilson’s career began, when the Jets made him a game manager. Over the eight games since, a span that has stretched from the end of last season through his first four games this season, Wilson has averaged 24.9 attempts per game, almost 10 fewer than what he averaged at the start of his career. Some of this has been influenced by game situations when the Jets had leads in recent games, but it is clear the Jets coaching staff made a decision near the end of last season that their best chance at winning was leaning on Wilson less than they did early in his rookie year.
2. When you look over Wilson’s numbers, the most damning one is that he has not had one game with more than 300 yards passing. That is not a high bar to clear in today’s NFL. There have been 42 instances this season of a player throwing for 300 yards or more. It is not all veteran stars hitting the mark either. Davis Mills, Bailey Zappe, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett each have a game with more than 300 yards passing.
Wilson’s career high is 297 yards, which came in his fourth start, an overtime game against the Titans last year. His top two games in passing yards came in those first four starts: He posted 258 in his debut against the Panthers before his career-high tally against the Titans. His high this season is 252 against the Steelers.
3. The other jarring stat is that he has yet to have a game with three touchdown passes. He has thrown two touchdowns just three times and has 10 games without a touchdown pass, including the past three.
4. On the plus side, Wilson has not thrown a lot of interceptions. He threw four against the Patriots in his second start, and has not come close to that number since. He has two games with two interceptions and nine games with no interceptions, including the past three.
5. Quarterback rating is not a perfect measure of a quarterback, but it is a good comparative tool. Wilson has yet to crack 100 for quarterback rating in a game, though he came quite close with a career best of 99.3 against the Dolphins this season. He has gone over 90 twice and has seven games below 70.
6. Perhaps Wilson’s best skill is his ability to avoid the pass rush. Wilson must have dodged four or five sacks in Denver, and has an uncanny ability to make a slight movement to avoid pass rushers. Wilson has been not been sacked more than three times in a game this season. He has been sacked six times twice, including his first career game against the Panthers, and suffered a career-worst eight sacks in the final game of last season in Buffalo.
Wilson sometimes makes spectacular throws when he avoids the rush, but other times he makes questionable decisions. The next step for Wilson is making the most of when he extends plays.
7. Wilson can run, but I’m not sure the Jets want him to. He only has 20 designed rushing attempts in his career, per Pro Football Focus. Most of his rushing comes off of scrambles when the play breaks down. He ran for 91 yards last season against the Jaguars, including an unforgettable 52-yard touchdown run. Still, he has not had more than five rushing attempts of any kind in a game, and his 24 rushing yards Sunday in Denver were his season high.
You wonder if Wilson is hesitant to run after injuring his knee on a scramble during the preseason. Sunday was the first time this year he looked truly comfortable running, making a nice cutback move on one run that was reminiscent of the play he was injured on in Philadelphia.
As Mike LaFleur reshapes this offense without Breece Hall, getting more designed runs for Wilson could be a nice wrinkle.
8. Wilson has lost only one fumble in his first 17 games. Wilson usually has two hands on the ball, and with his ability to feel the rush, he rarely takes huge hits in the pocket that would jar the ball free.
9. This one surprised me when digging in on the stats: Wilson has thrown no interceptions in the red zone. That area has been a trouble spot for some past Jets quarterbacks, but Wilson has been efficient there. Most of Wilson’s interceptions (7) have come between the opponents’ 20-49 yard line.
10. One thing that has been tough for Wilson is the Jets have been playing from behind in nearly all of his games. He has attempted 297 passes with the Jets trailing and 114 with the Jets in the lead.
The Dolphins game this month was the first time the Jets did not trail in a game started by Wilson. It leads to a lot of desperation throwing when the defense knows you’re passing and can bring the pass rush with no fear of you running the ball.
11. Wilson has shown an ability to play well late in games. He has completed 58 percent of his fourth-quarter passes with five touchdowns, three interceptions and a rating of 82.4. The five TD throws are the most he has thrown in any quarter. His worst quarter has been the first quarter: He has just one touchdown and three interceptions with a 53 percent completion rate and 58.3 QB rating.
12. Wilson definitely is more comfortable operating out of the shotgun. He has a 74.2 QB rating out of that formation as opposed to just 55.9 when under center. Wilson has only attempted 97 passes from under center and 387 from shotgun. This is not uncommon for today’s quarterbacks, many of whom struggle if they have to turn their back to the defense and then read the changes from the presnap look.
13. Along the same lines, Wilson has not been a good play-action quarterback. He has four interceptions and two touchdowns in 96 play-action attempts.
14. Wilson has been sacked 52 times, and a chunk of those have been on him for holding onto the ball too long. Wilson is much, much better when he can stay within the timing of the play.
With less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket, he has completed 65 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and three interceptions and has been sacked 10 times.
With 2.5 seconds or more in the pocket, he has completed 45.5 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and 10 interceptions and has been sacked 42 times.
15. Wilson’s yards per attempt are just 6.3, which is partially a function of an offense that features many short throws. You’d like to see the Jets open things up more for Wilson.
16. PFF has some fun quarterback numbers that are telling about Wilson. He has just 12 “big time throws” in PFF’s metrics and 25 turnover-worthy plays. It is not good to have double the amount of turnover worthy plays than big time throws.
17. Finally, Wilson’s struggles are not all on him. He has not been helped by his receivers in many instances. Pass catchers have dropped 37 passes from Wilson, per PFF, a 12 percent drop rate.
Sometimes the best trade is not to trade
I understand why Joe Douglas made the move to get James Robinson, but I think the Jets could have stood pat with what they have at running back after the Hall injury. Michael Carter, Ty Johnson and Zonovan Knight each have shown flashes to varying degrees. I would have gone with them in an increased role.
If he really felt they were not up for it, Douglas could have signed a running back off of another team’s practice squad and not given up a draft pick. Robinson is a replacement-level player. He was available for a reason. He may help the Jets down the stretch, but I’m not sure sending a potential fifth-round pick to Jacksonville will be worth it.
Stat’s so
We dug deep on Zach Wilson’s stats through his first 17 games. Here is a comparison to two other first-round Jets quarterbacks — Sam Darnold and Mark Sanchez — through their first 17 games. Note: This is just regular season. Sanchez played in three playoff games as a rookie.
Wilson: 271-484 (56 percent); 3,027 yards; 10 TDs; 13 INTs; 6.3 yards per attempt; 70.5 QBR; 52 sacks, 5 rush TDs
Darnold: 322-549 (58.7 percent); 3,682 yards; 22 TDs; 23 INTs; 6.7 yards per attempt; 74.8 QBR; 53 sacks, 1 rush TD
Sanchez: 227-415 (54.7 percent); 2,738 yards; 15 TDs; 20 INTs; 6.6 yards per attempt; 67.1 QBR; 31 sacks; 3 rush TDs
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