Losers of three straight, the Mets have seen their NL East divisional lead plummet to half a game over the Braves entering Sunday.
With the Yankees coming into Citi Field on Tuesday, it would be reasonable to expect the Mets to be underdogs in both of those games this week.
The Mets are still favorites on Sunday despite ice-cold bats and a big pitching mismatch. It is tough to see why oddsmakers have the Padres as underdogs.
Below, we get into Sunday’s crucial matchup for the Mets.
Mets vs. Padres odds (Sunday 7 p.m. ET)
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: SD +1.5 (-190) vs. NYM -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline: SD (+105) vs. NYM (-130)
Total: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Mets vs. Padres probable pitchers
Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 4.27) vs. Joe Musgrove (8-2, 2.42)
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Mets vs. Padres prediction
Let’s start with the pitching matchup. Joe Musgrove is an NL Cy Young candidate this season; he is currently +1400 to win the award on BetMGM (fifth best). His peripheral numbers are pretty impressive, too.
According to Baseball Savant, Musgrove ranks above average or great in most categories. These include (but are not limited to) hard-hit%, xERA, barrel%, and xSLG. Carrasco is not at that level yet this season.
Carrasco was bombed in June, resulting in a 6.37 ERA across six starts. His three starts in July have shown some significant improvement from the veteran. However, those three starts are against three below-average offenses: the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers.
At face value, it would appear that the Padres are in the same boat, ranking 19th in runs scored this season. While they have struggled to score at home, they have the third-best road offense in the majors.
With Carrasco getting beaten up by good offenses this season, it would appear possible that a repeat is in store. The Mets do need a stopper, so perhaps they play in desperation mode.
The Mets are not a worthy bet for the night. Instead, the Padres on the runline (+1.5) are -190 and a fine bet.
Mets vs. Padres pick
Padres +1.5 (-190) — BetMGM
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