In advance of the Nationals-Dodgers National League contest tonight, Collin Whitchurch of The Action Network is here to give his best bet (video above).
For Whitchurch, he’s choosing to get involved with the total as a result of the starting pitching matchup at Dodger Stadium. The Nationals will send Josiah Gray to the mound while the Dodgers will counter with Mitch White.
Whitchurch believes there are problems with both pitchers, perhaps even more so with Gray.
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“Gray has a 27 percent strikeout rate – which is really good – but a 10 percent walk rate,” Whitchurch says.
Additionally, the big knock against Gray is that most of his balls in play go in the air. Entering tonight’s contest, the right-hander has a 71 percent fly-ball rate. Additionally, the Dodgers have a positive run value against all of Gray’s three primary pitches — fastball, slider and curveball.
Lastly, in his most recent start against the Dodgers, Gray gave up seven earned runs and lasted only three innings.
On the flip-side, White is a pitcher Whitchurch believes the market is overvaluing. He brings a 3.78 ERA to tonight’s contest, but his xERA is all the way up at 4.15. White also fails to strike out a lot of batters — his K rate is only 20 percent — and has a high walk rate of nine percent.
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Given the Nationals rank 11th in Major League Baseball in walk rate and avoid striking out at the second-highest rate in the league, Whitchurch believes they’ll contribute some runs to the total.
For those reasons, back over 8.5 runs at -115 or better on BetMGM.
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