Welcome back!
The NCAA basketball tournaments are right around the corner, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t going to attack some NBA PrizePicks squares tonight.
There aren’t a ton of games on the board to choose from yet this morning, but there seem to be a few spots we can try to exploit.
NBA PrizePicks predictions today
Zach LaVine more than 25.5 Points
We’ve seen an unexpected changing of the guard in Chicago.
DeMar DeRozan was the usage hog and alpha-scorer for the better part of two years.
But during the second half of this season, he’s taken a firm back seat to LaVine.
In fact, since February 1st, DeRozan has taken 20+ field goal attempts in a game just once.
The result?
LaVine has posted a usage rate roughly three percentage points higher than DeRozan while scoring more than 25.5 points in two-thirds of games played in that timeframe.
According to the RotoGrinders Defense vs. Archetype Matchup Tool, scoring wings should have a nice advantage against Denver tonight.
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Al Horford more than 9.5 Points
My biggest concern with this pick is a potential blowout.
However, if the game is fairly close, it’s impossible to ignore Boston’s projected team total.
Horford has been logging crazy minutes for an old man, and he’ll be expected to do so again with Robert Williams inactive tonight.
Horford has scored more than 9.5 points in seven of his last eight games.
RotoGrinders projects him to play 33 minutes and score more than a full point higher than this PrizePicks projection.
Portland center (and likely Horford defender) Jusuf Nukic is listed as questionable after being out for over a month, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up tonight.
Even if he does, he’d be super limited.
Regardless, the Blazers yield the most points in the league on a per-game basis to opposing centers.
Let’s hope for a quick Horford run from the jump, so we don’t have to worry about a blowout.
Jaylen Brown more than 41.5 Fantasy Score
Again, we need this to be a close game, but the upside for points is tremendous.
Portland has been horrendous defensively, so we’re hoping Dame can shoot the Blazers into a competitive fourth quarter.
On the other side, Brown has been such a model of consistency this season.
This season, he scored more than 41.5 fantasy points in more than 60% of his games in which he logged 30+ minutes.
RotoGrinders has him projected for 37 minutes and a shade more than 43 fantasy points tonight.
Betting on the NBA?
Nikola Jokic less than 0.5 3-PT Made
This is always an adrenaline rush.
In fact, Jokic made one during Denver’s last game!
However, he’s taken just 12 3-point attempts since the beginning of February (15 games), while five of them came in one game alone (vs. Orlando).
Honestly, there should probably be a square projecting if the MVP candidate will even attempt a 3-point shot tonight.
The Nuggets are finally getting healthy.
I think Jokic would rather efficiently distribute to his talented teammates rather than shoot multiple 3-point attempts on a given night.
Clint Capela more than 28.5 Fantasy Score
Capela has tallied multiple blocks + steals in seven of his last 10 games.
His ability to accrue hustle points gives him serious fantasy points upside on any given night.
Capela eclipsed this number in six of those 10 games, but three of those misses were against New York, Cleveland, and Miami – three teams that play well defensively and at a sluggish place.
Tonight’s game versus Washington is projected to see the most points on the slate, so there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy points to be scored in such an appealing game environment.
For what it’s worth, RotoGrinders has Capela projected for 32.24 fantasy points tonight.
You can follow Justin Carlucci on Twitter @ThejCarlucci
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