Odds, expert NFL Week 5 picks

Our NFL betting expert brings you our best Patriots vs. Lions predictions and picks for their NFL Week 5 showdown, which is live Sunday on FOX at 1 p.m. ET.

Coming off back-to-back losses, the Patriots will be seeking their first victory at home when they welcome an injury-riddled Detroit team to town that will likely be without its most formidable offensive weapons.

Lions vs. Patriots predictions

Lions vs. Patriots picks and analysis

Five years ago, it would have been pretty hard to imagine New England having the same record as the Lions. Unless, of course, Detroit got off to a roaring 4-0 start.

But both teams are 1-3, and it’s been the Patriots’ inability to close games and Detroit’s abysmal defensive efforts that have them in the basement of their respective divisions. One of these teams will begin its ascent from the bottom of the standings, while the other continues to plummet with no end in sight.

Patriots to cover -3

Quarterback Mac Jones is working toward playing, but if he isn’t able to go, it’ll be rookie Bailey Zappe stepping under center to make his first career start.

But honestly, it really doesn’t matter who ends up commandeering the offense considering they’ll be facing a Lions defense that probably couldn’t stop a junior varsity quarterback right now.

Detroit has allowed the most points (35.3) and total yards of offense (444.8) per game through the first four weeks of action. Its high-octane offense has been the only thing keeping it in games, but two of the most important characters that make up that unit — running back D’Andre Swift and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown — might not be playing this week after missing practice on Wednesday.

Picking the Patriots to win this one by at least a field goal is just far too good to pass up.

Our Pick: Patriots to cover -3.0 @ -120 with Caesars Sportsbook

Patriots score over 2.5 touchdowns -145

In addition to the Lions’ defense being downright abysmal, New England’s track record at home also bodes extremely well for this pick.

The Patriots have found the end zone at least three times in each of their last seven games in Foxborough, Mass., and they shouldn’t have any problem keeping that streak alive on Sunday.

Detroit has already allowed 19 touchdowns, which is six more than any other team in the league has given up. That means opponents are essentially scoring a whopping five TDs per game.

If New England’s line was at 3.5 touchdowns, the pick would still be worth taking a serious look at and feels like a Week 5 must.

Our Pick: Patriots to score over 2.5 touchdowns @ -145 with Caesars Sportsbook

Betting on the NFL?

Lions win zero quarters +600

If there’s ever a bet at +600 odds that’s going to cash, it’s this one.

Detroit lost the first three quarters against the Seahawks last week before winning the fourth, but did so against a Seattle defense that allows the second-most yards per game in the league.

New England’s defense will be the best that the Lions have seen through the first five weeks of the season, so chances are, they won’t be able to put together consecutive scoring drives.

That very defense allowed the Patriots to go toe-to-toe with the Packers in Week 4, and New England only lost one quarter (by a field goal) in regulation. Tread lightly here, but even the smallest of wagers could make some serious profit.

Our Pick: Lions to win zero quarters @ +600 with Caesars Sportsbook

Lions vs. Patriots odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.