“The Game” has arrived.
The rivalry’s nickname has always been bland. It has often been overstated, considering Michigan and Ohio State have combined for one national championship in the past two decades and the Buckeyes recently rolled off eight straight wins in the series.
But “The Game” has rarely sounded more apt. No game has been more anticipated this season.
For the third straight year, No. 2 Ohio State (11-0) and No. 3 Michigan (11-0) meet in a de facto playoff game. (The winner will be a three-touchdown favorite against Iowa for the Big Ten title next week). It is their second matchup as undefeated teams in 12 months.
It will be played without Jim Harbaugh, who is serving the final game of his three-game suspension. And it will be the first time in five years that the Buckeyes are underdogs against a Big Ten team, leading the public to pounce on them on more than 80 percent of betting tickets. The public can’t help but be a prisoner of the moment.
The spread has nearly dropped in half since Michigan was favored by as much as 6.5 points less than a week ago. All it took was back-to-back Ohio State blowouts over two of the league’s worst teams and one poor second-half performance by the Wolverines, who exhaled with the Buckeyes in sight.
That’s all it took to forget Michigan has been the most consistent and dominant team all season. That’s all it took to forget Ohio State’s numerous near-stumbles. Suddenly, it doesn’t register that Kyle McCord’s four interceptions have all come on the road — including three in the past two games away from home — as well as four of his five-lowest passing totals. J.J. McCarthy has been underwhelming without Harbaugh, so the memory of his 263 yards and three touchdowns at Ohio State last season doesn’t step forward.
It matters that Michigan hasn’t lost a home game since 2020. It matters that it won the past two meetings by a total of 37 points. If this is a low-scoring slugfest between two of the nation’s best defenses, it’s important that Michigan is better equipped to win the biggest plays. It commits the fewest penalties in the nation (Ohio State ranks 64th) and fifth-fewest turnovers. It ranks fourth in third-down conversions and 11th in fourth-down conversions. It holds significant edges in takeaways and sacks and time of possession.
Though it wouldn’t be a shock to see Ohio State prevail, MICHIGAN (-3.5) has been making the stronger case all season.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (+11) over Ole Miss
The last time the Rebels won in Starkville by more than 11 points, Eli Manning threw three touchdowns.
OKLAHOMA (-10.5) over TCU
The Sooners have been scheduled to play three teams who beat them last season. The rematch with Texas was Oklahoma’s best win of the year. Two weeks ago, Dillon Gabriel accounted for eight touchdowns in a blowout of West Virginia. TCU is next, needing a win for bowl eligibility after reaching the national title game.
Iowa (+2.5) over NEBRASKA
The tryptophan special. Nebraska 5, Iowa 3. I’m only half-kidding.
Missouri (-7.5) over ARKANSAS
After nearly succumbing to a trap game against Florida, Missouri will be more focused against on the road, where the Tigers have gone 3-0 against the spread.
Texas Tech (+12.5) over TEXAS
It has been nearly 11 weeks since the Longhorns won at Alabama. That victory may end up being enough to get them into the playoff, but Texas lost its shine long ago. The Longhorns have won just one of their past six games by more than 10 points, while allowing each of their past three opponents to throw for more than 300 yards.
Penn State (-20.5) over MICHIGAN STATE
The second-best defense in the nation faces the third-lowest scoring offense. The Nittany Lions have won 20 straight games against unranked opponents and gone 7-1 against the spread as a double-digit favorite this season.
Oregon State (+13.5 ) over OREGON
The Ducks will make up for last year’s meltdown — blowing a 17-point fourth quarter lead — but the final Civil War for the foreseeable future will be memorable. The No. 15 Beavers’ three losses have come by a total of eight points.
Texas A&M (+11) over LSU
This line makes sense if you only read headlines. Jayden Daniels’ Heisman campaign has overinflated the value of a team that has one win over a power conference team with a winning record and the 106th-ranked defense in the nation. Meanwhile, the Jimbo Fisher-less Aggies (7-4) and their top 10 defense are just a few weeks removed from a near-upset at No. 12 Ole Miss.
LOUISVILLE (-7) over Kentucky
The ACC Championship-bound Cardinals’ dominance at home is well-documented. The Wildcats have won one of their past six games. It’s safe to say that Kentucky’s four-game winning streak by double-digits in this series should end.
AUBURN (+14.5) over Alabama
There is no evidence on paper or on the field to support the Tigers’ case, especially after a 31-10 loss to New Mexico State, which received $1.85 million to embarrass Auburn. But the Iron Bowl doesn’t follow logic, especially at Jordan-Hare Stadium, where the Tigers have three outright wins as underdogs in the past five meetings, as well as a quadruple-overtime loss as a 19-point underdog in 2021.
Washington State (+16.5) over WASHINGTON
If only the Huskies were as impressive as their record. Washington — currently a +7.5-point underdog in a likely Pac-12 title game matchup against Oregon — has won its past seven games by 10 points or less.
Betting on College Football?
Florida State (-6.5) over FLORIDA
You are old enough to remember the Ohio State obituaries written after J.T. Barrett’s injury in the 2014 regular-season finale, only for Cardale Jones to win the Big Ten title game, playoff semifinal and national championship in his first three starts. Don’t write off the undefeated Seminoles from playoff contention after Jordan Travis’ injury. Backup Tate Rodemaker has spent four years in Mike Norvell’s system and has been thrust into tough spots before. Florida faces the bigger issue at quarterback, with backup redshirt freshman Max Brown making his first start.
Notre Dame (-25.5) over STANFORD
Another Stanford upset isn’t in play. With victory essentially assured — please, make a killing on the Cardinal money line (+1600) if you feel differently — Notre Dame should roll. In eight victories, the Irish have won by an average of 32.6 points.
GEORGIA TECH (+24.5) over Georgia
In case you were wondering, the Bulldogs are currently -3.5-point favorites against Alabama in next week’s SEC Championship.
Best bets: Texas Tech, Oregon State, Washington State
This season: 87-89-4 (15-20-1)
2014-22 record: 1,150-1,082-25
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