Oregon is the most complete team in the Pac-12 and has tons of momentum heading into Friday night’s conference title game in Las Vegas against undefeated Washington.
Yes, 9.5 is a big number, but the Ducks – my preseason pick to win the Pac-12 – are peaking and have mauled opponents the entire season, winning by an average of more than 32 points per game.
They’re also 9-2-1 against the spread (ATS).
As much as an undefeated team can, Washington has limped to the finish, winning its past three games by an average of just four points.
In fact, six of Washington’s 12 wins this season were one-score victories, which is why the Huskies are just 4-6-1 ATS. The Huskies deserve full credit for winning those games, but they have flirted with disaster and against a team like Oregon it could come back to bite them.
Michael Penix Jr. has had a tremendous season, throwing for 3,899 yards, 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing 65.6 percent of his passes. While he was a Heisman candidate for much of the year, his play tailed off near the end of the regular season.
After completing 72.1 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions over the first six games, Penix completed just 59 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions over his final six games.
Not only has his production dipped, but Oregon’s defense has improved since Washington eked out a 36-33 win over the Ducks in mid-October.
Oregon has held four of their past five opponents to less than 20 points, rank second in the Pac-12 in yards per game allowed (306) and leads the conference in points per game allowed (15.9).
Washington’s offense, which ranks third in the conference in both yards (468) and points (38) per game, is certainly capable of putting up big numbers and rattling off multiple explosive plays, but the Ducks present a stiff test.
Washington will score, but will it be enough?
Oregon was the only team in the country this season to score 30 or more points in every game. The Ducks also finished first in the Pac-12 in average yards gained per game (541).
Oregon’s offense has been spectacular all season, but over the last month it took things to another level.
In four November games, Bo Nix completed 79 percent of his passes (109-of-138) for 1,569 yards and 16 touchdowns. He threw just one interception, had a 211.31 quarterback rating and averaged 11.4 yards per attempt during that stretch.
Betting on College Football?
Washington’s defense, which ranked eighth in the conference in yards per game allowed (399) and sixth in points per game allowed (23), isn’t likely going to be the one to finally halt Oregon’s momentum.
Oregon wants revenge for its only loss, but both teams want to win the conference and advance to the College Football Playoff so there isn’t much of a motivational edge either way.
However, Oregon seems to have an advantage on both sides of the ball and is also extremely healthy for this late in the season.
Oregon’s balanced offensive attack and swarming defense will get the job done Friday night.
Bet on the Ducks to cover as Nix lights up the scoreboard and clinches the Heisman Trophy.
The play: Oregon -9.5 (-105, FanDuel)
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