Republican attempts to push immigration to the forefront of the midterm election campaign are faltering on a national level, new polling shows, but could help seal victory for a handful of their highest-profile candidates.
Figures published on Monday by the pollster Gallup show voters rank the issue as only fifth in their list of priorities, even as the number of migrant apprehensions at the southern border reaches record levels.
But separate polling from the Siena College Research Institute suggests immigration is far more prominent an issue for voters in certain states such as Florida and Texas. Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott, the incumbent Republican governors of those states, have both been given a boost by their aggressive moves to transport migrants into liberal states.
The Republican focus on immigration is part of a broader push from both parties to energise their core voters just weeks before what is set to be a tightly fought election. While Republicans are talking about immigration and crime as the campaign enters its final stretch, Democrats are focusing on women’s reproductive rights in the wake of the repeal of Roe vs Wade.
Jeff Jones, a pollster at Gallup, said: “What we are seeing more and more with each election is that it is not about trying to change people’s minds, it is about getting the base out. Immigration is a good issue to motivate the Republican base.”
Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, said: “How important an issue immigration is for you depends a great deal on where you are. In Florida and Texas it is front and centre of Republicans’ minds, and is also a big issue for independents.”
In recent weeks, Republicans across the country have focused their campaigns heavily on the twin issues of crime and immigration, often attempting to tie them together in voters’ minds.
Citizens for Sanity, a non-profit group run by three former Trump administration officials, has bought $33mn worth of television adverts focusing on the issues, according to AdImpact. The adverts, which are playing in swing states such as Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania, warn of “drug dealers and sex traffickers roaming free” as a result of what they say is the Biden administration’s “open border policy”.
Meanwhile several Republican governors have made political capital out of their eye-catching moves to send immigrants in buses and aeroplanes out of their states and into more liberal areas.
DeSantis triggered outrage when he transported a group of immigrants originally from Texas via Florida to Martha’s Vineyard, the holiday destination favoured by many well-off liberal Northeasterners. But polling by Siena College shows the transportations have been popular with Republicans and independent voters in both Texas and Florida.
The moves were seen as so politically effective that even Republican candidates in states far away from the border are promising something similar. Doug Mastriano, the Trump ally who is running to be governor of Pennsylvania, said last week that if he won his race he would transport undocumented immigrants across state lines.
Republicans were given further fuel last week when figures from Customs and Border Patrol showed that officers had apprehended more than 227,000 people at the southern border in September. That was 19 per cent higher than the same time last year.
Under pressure, the Biden administration has felt compelled to act. Earlier this month, the Department of Homeland Security announced in a dramatic U-turn that it was expanding the use of Title 42, which allows border guards to turn back asylum seekers on public health grounds, so that it now applies to Venezuelans as well.
National polling suggests the focus on the issue from both sides has made little impact nationally.
Data published on Monday by Gallup shows 37 per cent of voters ranked immigration as “extremely important” in deciding their vote, putting the issue behind the economy, abortion, crime and gun policy.
That makes it roughly as important as it always is at this stage of the electoral cycle. In 2018, 40 per cent of voters ranked it as “extremely important”. Four years earlier, that figure was 31 per cent, and in 2010 it was 38 per cent.
Carroll Doherty, director of political research at the Pew Research Center, said: “Immigration is generally a second-order concern for most voters heading into an election. One difference this time, however, is that the partisan gap is as wide as we have ever seen it — Republicans care far more about this than Democrats.”
That partisan gap appears to be helping Republican candidates in the south.
In Texas, Abbott has an eight-point lead over his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, while in Florida DeSantis enjoys an 11-point lead over Charlie Crist. In Arizona, some pollsters believe that concerns over immigration may have helped push the controversial rightwing candidate for governor, Kari Lake, three points ahead of her opponent, Katie Hobbs.
“It would not surprise me if immigration is a decisive issue in Arizona,” said Levy. “But in other closely fought states further away from the border such as Wisconsin, it gravitates down to a lower-order issue.”
Some Democrats believe, however, that Republicans are buying themselves short-term success with their hardline immigration rhetoric but longer-term problems among the fast-growing group of Hispanic voters.
“There is evidence that the Democrats’ lead among Hispanic voters is slipping,” said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist. “But if the number of Hispanic voters keeps growing as fast as it is now, they will turn traditionally Republican parts of the country bluer and bluer.
“That might force the Republicans to rethink their stance on immigration.”
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