When the Orlando Magic selected Paolo Banchero with the first overall pick in June’s rookie draft, it took many in the basketball community by surprise. Three weeks into the season, he’s already the clear frontrunner to win NBA Rookie of the Year – and it’s not even close.
The former Duke star is dealing as the -700 favorite to win the coveted award, making him the only prohibitive favorite across any of the NBA’s top awards at BetMGM. In fact, Banchero has been so dominant that oddsmakers are essentially writing off the rest of the field less than a month into the season.
If that sounds like hyperbole, take a look for yourself at the latest odds for this race. Only Banchero and Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin are priced shorter than 40/1, and only eight players in the entire field own better than 500/1 odds:
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2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year odds (via BetMGM)
| Paolo Banchero | -700 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | +500 |
| Jaden Ivey | +4000 |
| Keegan Murray | +5000 |
| Jabari Smith | +10000 |
| Shaedon Sharpe | +20000 |
| Jeremy Sochan | +30000 |
| Jaden Hardy | +30000 |
Is Banchero a lock to win NBA Rookie of the Year?
Conventional wisdom says it’s too early to write the final chapter on this year’s Rookie of the Year race. We only need to look back three years ago, when Zion Williamson was the overwhelming favorite before injuries unceremoniously foiled his ROY campaign.
Still, if Banchero remains healthy, it’s hard to imagine him surrendering the top spot on the board, as he’s already on a historic pace for a first-year star.
Through the first 11 games of his career, Banchero leads all rookies in points (23.5) and rebounds (8.3), ranks second in assists (3.6), and sits in the top five in blocks (0.9) and steals (0.7). His scoring pace is tied for the best by a rookie since David Robinson (24.3 PPG) in 1989-90, which was the best since Michael Jordan (28.2) in 1984-85.
On Monday, Banchero became just the fifth teenager in NBA history to post consecutive 30-point games. That early dominance has Banchero in line to become just the third rookie in the last 25 seasons to earn an All-Star nod, which would seemingly punctuate his case for Rookie of the Year.
While Banchero has clearly been the best rookie in this year’s crop, he hasn’t been the only one worthy of early praise. Mathurin sits just behind him with 20.4 points per game despite spending the entire season in a reserve role – something that could change with Pacers teammate Chris Duarte (ankle) expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks.
Betting on the NBA?
If there’s one long shot to keep your eye on, it’s Jaden Ivey. The Pistons guard fits the bill of a quintessential ROY winner as a ball-dominant guard with two-way potential, and he’s shown flashes of that already as the early rookie leader in assists (3.8) and steals (1.5). Yet his scoring production (15.4 PPG) is clearly a step behind Banchero and Mathurin, which would need to change for Ivey to become a legitimate contender in this market.
At this rate, this feels like a two- or three-man race and more like a coronation for Banchero, who is already making his case as the best rookie since LeBron James, just one month into his NBA career. Barring an injury, this is clearly his award to lose.
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