The English Premier League typically isn’t kind to long shots.
There’s, of course, the exception of Leicester City, which won the title as a 5,000/1 outsider in 2015-16, but that was an extreme outlier.
Only three teams — Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea — have won the Premier League in the seven seasons since the Leicester City miracle, and Man City is responsible for five of those titles, including the last three.
They’re an odds-on favorite to four-peat in 2023-24.
| English Premier League odds |
|---|
| Manchester City -125 |
| Arsenal +600 |
| Liverpool +900 |
| Manchester United +1400 |
| Chelsea +1600 |
| Newcastle +1600 |
| Tottenham 40/1 |
| Brighton 50/1 |
| Aston Villa 150/1 |
| West Ham 250/1 |
| Brentford 400/1 |
| Crystal Palace 500/1 |
| Everton 500/1 |
| Wolverhampton 750/1 |
| Fulham 1000/1 |
| Bournemouth 150/1 |
The Premier League being top-heavy is nothing new.
For the better part of the last decade, there’s been a “Big Six” in the Premier League.
Those six teams (Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham) were considered the only clubs with a realistic chance of winning the trophy.
But the times are changin’ in the Premier League, and for the first time in quite a while, there are a handful of teams beyond the “Big Six” that have potential to make some noise at the top of the table.
The two most formidable gatecrashers are Newcastle, which is owned by Saudi Arabia’s PIF, and Brighton, which has achieved success by building a sustainable program from the ground up under owner Tony Bloom — a professional gambler.
There will be plenty of betting support for Newcastle as a trendy title contender at 16/1 and Brighton to finish inside the top four at +400, but the market is already quite high on both clubs.
Because of that, you can find better value behind them on the betting board.
One team that seems to be following in the footsteps of Brighton is Brentford.
The Bees, who are also owned by a professional bettor, turned some heads with a 13th-place finish in their first Premier League season in 2021-22, and they proved they belonged the following campaign by finishing ninth last season.
Things checked out under the hood, too.
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Only seven teams had a better-expected goal difference than Brentford did last season.
That is a testament to the process that has been put in place by manager Thomas Frank, who is quickly becoming one of the best in the world.
The transfer season has only just begun — and Brentford will need to bring in a striker since Ivan Toney is suspended until mid-January — but the club has proven to be adept at finding talented players that fit with their ethos.
I’d be pretty confident they’ll find a way to replace Toney’s output.
And it’s not like Brentford needs to be a prolific offensive team to have success.
The Bees finished sixth in the Premier League in goals against, sixth in expected goals conceded, and seventh in big scoring chances allowed.
The defensive structure is already there, so if the Bees do find goals, they’ll be very live to crash the party at the top of the table.
Qualifying for the top four may be a step too far for Brentford this season.
But with question marks surrounding Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool, a bet on the Bees to finish inside the top six at double-digit odds seems well worth the risk at 11/1 (DraftKings).
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