SEC Championship picks and betting offers

Our college football betting writer brings you his best LSU vs. Georgia predictions and picks for their SEC Championship Game showdown, which is live Saturday on CBS at 4 p.m. ET.

No. 1 Georgia (12-0, 8-0), champion of the East division, is almost certainly going to the College Football Playoff regardless of what happens in this game.

No. 14 LSU (9-3, 6-2), champion of the West division, saw its CFP hopes vanish when it plummeted from No. 5 in the CFP rankings after a 38-23 loss to unranked Texas A&M last Saturday.

LSU vs. Georgia picks

• LSU to cover +17.5 @ -110 at BetMGM
• Cover under 10 points in the first quarter @ +105 at BetMGM
• Under 51.5 total points @ -110 at BetMGM

LSU vs. Georgia prediction and analysis

LSU wasn’t expected to be here. The Tigers were thought to be rebuilding in former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly’s first season. Still, Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels blossomed as a dual-threat quarterback, and the defense got better as the season went along before taking a step back against Texas A&M.

Georgia was expected to be here. The defending national champion was No. 3 in the AP preseason poll and has seemed destined for a return trip to the CFP all season long. Stetson Bennett, MVP of the CFP Championship Game last season, has continued to excel as the offense’s triggerman. The Bulldogs have the No. 4 defense in the country, and only once has Georgia won by less than two scores this season.

LSU +17.5

The Tigers’ trademark this season is bouncing back. They lost their season opener against Florida State, then won four games in a row. They lost to Tennessee, then won five games in a row.

LSU will bounce back again and play much better than it played last week. It might not be good enough to win, but it will be at least enough to keep the game closer than the betting line suggests.

Daniels’ ability to run and throw will keep the Bulldogs off balance, limit Bennett’s opportunities and produce enough points to cover the spread.

LSU vs. Georgia pick: LSU to cover +17.5 @ -110 at BetMGM

Betting on College Football?

Under 10 first-quarter points

LSU has a habit of starting slowly on offense. In fact, in all but one SEC game the Tigers have seen the opponent score first. So don’t look for the Tigers to score much, if at all, in the first quarter, though they might move the ball enough to possess the ball more than the Bulldogs.

In Georgia’s narrowest victories – Missouri (26-22), Kentucky (16-6), Tennessee (27-13) and Kent State (39-22) – it has had trouble with slow starts and converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns.

LSU vs. Georgia pick: Under 10 points in first quarter @ +105 at BetMGM

Under 51.5 total points

LSU has overcome its slow starts offensively, with the exception of the loss to Tennessee and picked up the scoring pace as the games have gone along. But the Tigers won’t be able to break out against the Georgia defense to the degree that they were able to against Mississippi State, Florida, Ole Miss and Alabama.

The Bulldogs periodically will stall in the red zone and settle for field goals. They also have had had trouble with turnovers in their lower-scoring games.

Both defenses will play well. Both offenses will be better at gaining yards and kicking field goals than they will be at getting the ball in the end zone.

It will be a hard-fought, defense-oriented, close ball game in which the final score falls short of the over-under line.

LSU vs. Georgia pick: Under 51.5 total points @ -110 at BetMGM

LSU vs. Georgia odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.