The Mets and Yankees are off to sluggish starts while the Braves and Rays have raced past them to sizable division leads.
The Yankees built their rotation around Gerrit Cole and newcomer Carlos Rodon, as well as Luis Severino. The Mets paired Max Scherzer with new co-ace Justin Verlander, and brought in Kodai Senga as an intriguing newcomer.
At least part of the reason the teams focused so much on top-of-the-rotation additions — Rodon signed in The Bronx for six years and $162 million, and the Mets signed Verlander for $86.67 million over two years and Senga for $75 million over five years — is that teams generally rely on three top starters in the postseason.
But teams have to get to the playoffs for that to matter, and at this point, both the Yankees (fourth place, one-game lead for third wild card) and Mets (fourth place, half-game back of third wild card) are on the edge of the expanded wild-card races.
The depth of teams’ starting pitching gets tested on the way to October.
And due to injuries on both sides of town, that rotation depth already has been tested — with varying results.
Mets
On Monday, the Mets went back to lefty David Peterson, who was pounded again in a 10-3 loss in Washington, no thanks to a powerless offense or Francisco Alvarez’s baserunning blunder.
That left the 27-year-old Peterson with an unsightly ERA of 8.08, which — not surprisingly — would be the worst in the majors if he’d thrown enough innings to qualify.
Tylor Megill has started the most games (eight) and pitched the most innings (40 1/3) of anyone in the Mets rotation.
That was hardly the plan going into the season.
And though, unlike Peterson, Megill (4-2, 4.02 ERA) has been serviceable, he began spring training as No. 6 or No. 7 on the depth chart and is meant to be a No. 4 or No. 5 starter at best.
Senga’s adjustment to MLB in his first year after signing from Japan has been rocky. He’s had four good outings in which he’s allowed two runs or fewer; in the other three, he’s given up at least four runs in five innings or less.
Joey Lucchesi has pitched to a 6.46 ERA in his past four outings after opening the season with seven scoreless innings against San Francisco.
On the positive side, Carlos Carrasco is expected back this weekend after spending time on the injured list due to elbow inflammation. If he can get back to the form he showed last season, when he had a 3.97 ERA in 29 starts, the Mets won’t be as reliant on the Megills and Petersons of the world.
The most important parts of the rotation, though, are Scherzer and Verlander. Scherzer is coming off his best start in a month after dealing issues with his neck and below his scapula, as well serving a 10-game suspension for using a sticky substance.
The NL East-leading Braves, meanwhile, who snapped a four-game losing streak Monday, have Max Fried and Kyle Wright each expected to miss two months on the IL. The Braves have gotten just about everything they could have hoped for from Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder, as well as the ageless Charlie Morton.
Yankees
On Monday, the Yankees successfully used Jimmy Cordero as an opener in front of Jhony Brito in a 7-4 win over the Blue Jays that was marked by Aaron Judge’s two home runs and curious glance into the team’s dugout from the batter’s box.
That upped their record to 16-18 in games not started by Cole. They are 8-1 when Cole starts.
A rotation that was supposed to consist of Cole, Rodon, Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas has been just two-fifths intact.
Cole has been among the league’s best starters. Cortes is off to an ugly start with a 5.53 ERA in his eight starts.
Domingo German (4.00 ERA, 47 strikeouts in 45 innings) has been solid as a fill-in, but Brito (who lowered his ERA to 5.20 with his work Monday) and Clarke Schmidt (6.30 ERA) have not been able to provide much beyond eating innings.
Severino, rehabbing from a strained lat, is expected to need just one more rehab start before he can come back, but durability has been a persistent problem for the 29-year-old, who hasn’t made 30 starts in a season since 2018. His return likely pushes Brito back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
There’s no telling when, exactly, Rodon will make his Yankees debut. He’s still dealing with back discomfort after suffering a left forearm strain in the spring. The Yankees insist Rodon is getting closer to a Bronx debut.
But the AL East-leading Rays — who have a 4.5 game lead over the insurgent Orioles — are seeing their own rotation issues develop as they start a three-game series in Queens on Tuesday.
Drew Rasmussen was placed on the 60-day IL with a flexor strain in his elbow after dominating the Yankees last Thursday, and Jeffrey Springs has already been lost to Tommy John surgery.
It’s becoming increasingly clear neither the Mets nor the Yankees can rely on the current back ends of their rotations.
And the teams’ top pitching prospects are mostly at Double-A or lower, meaning there’s not much help coming from the minors.
So the aces on both sides of town can’t afford to disappoint.
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To the victor goes Victor
The NBA draft lottery will be held Tuesday in Chicago, and much like when Zion Williamson was coming out of Duke in 2019, all eyes will be on the team that lands the top pick.
Another potential franchise-changing prospect is there for the taking in Victor Wembanyama, a 7-foot-4 athletic freak from France.
The Pistons, Rockets and Spurs, each with 14 percent chances, have the best odds of landing the 19-year-old.
(If a long-shot team moves up in the lottery, that’s good news for the Knicks, who would received the Mavericks’ pick if it falls out of the top 10.)
Wembanyama, a shot-blocking phenom with the ability to handle the ball and shoot from 3, is expected to be one of the most skilled big men the NBA has ever seen.
The Spurs might be the most intriguing team for Wembanyama to go to.
After all, the past two times the Spurs got to No. 1 overall pick, they selected Hall of Fame post players.
First, there was David Robinson in 1987. A decade later, after they tanked following a pair of injuries to Robinson and were rewarded with the top pick again, they drafted Tim Duncan, who won five titles in San Antonio.
Though the Spurs haven’t had much success since Duncan’s departure, Gregg Popovich remains the head coach and clearly knows how to get the best out of generationally talented big men.
Chap’ sticks
MLB trade season has yet to heat up, but it’s never too early to look at good players on bad teams and think about where they might be headed.
Believe it or not, Aroldis Chapman may end up on that list.
The 35-year-old signed a $3.75 million deal with the Royals, who should be the worst team in baseball, but are somehow being outdone by the A’s.
The Royals certainly won’t need a closer in the second half of the season. They will look to move Chapman for prospects, and they could get a decent return.
Chapman’s strikeout rate has bounced back to 37.1 percent after dropping to a career-low 26.9 percent last year with the Yankees.
Chapman has also gotten more than 2 mph back on his four-seam fastball, going to 99.6 from 97.5.
But there are cracks beginning to show. After opening the season with eight scoreless innings in his first eight appearances, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out 15, Chapman has been less effective lately.
In his past eight appearances, Chapman has given up seven runs (six earned) on nine hits and five walks in 6 ⅔ innings.
Oh, and then there’s the other, more troubling parts of Chapman’s resume, most recently when he skipped a mandatory workout before the playoffs last year when he was not assured a spot on the Yankees’ postseason roster.
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