The NFL playoffs have more questions than an imaginative toddler.
Seven quarterbacks are making their first career playoff starts. Home-field advantage in the AFC Championship Game might not exist. Injuries have changed the look of many contenders. All six Super Wild Card weekend games are rematches of at least one regular-season meeting.
With that in mind, Post Sports+ looks at the biggest question for each of the 14 teams as the playoffs get underway Saturday:
NFC
1. Eagles: Is QB Jalen Hurts healthy?
Maybe a bye week helps, but Hurts didn’t look right in his return from a two-week absence due a right shoulder sprain as the Eagles scored one touchdown on five red-zone trips against the Giants’ backups in Week 18.
If Hurts, who was reluctant to scramble from the pocket, is not a dual threat, then his off-script plays that become big-play strikes suddenly disappear. Head coach Nick Sirianni’s uncharacteristic injury reveal that it “hurt [Hurts] like hell” to play feels like a bit of cover-your-butt excuse-making in case of an early postseason exit.
2. 49ers: Is QB Brock Purdy going to remain unflappable under playoff pressure?
The rookie third-stringer isn’t just along for the ride with a great defense and rushing attack. He’s been the conductor with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions during a 5-0 start.
The 49ers didn’t ask Jimmy Garoppolo to make many big throws during their two recent deep playoff runs, but Purdy has earned some lenience if head coach Kyle Shanahan has learned not to try to win every game 13-10. If they keep winning and Garoppolo gets healthy, the question becomes: Do the 49ers consider a quarterback change?
3. Vikings: How big of a deal is scoring margin?
Some analytics subscribers believe point differential is a better indicator of dominance than a team’s record. Of the seven teams with at least 12 wins this season, six had point differentials of at least +96. The Vikings’ was -3. How? Well, the Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games and suffered losses by 37 and 24 points.
So, are all those close wins a sign of a team that knows how to get the job done under pressure? Or are the Vikings a paper tiger incapable of recovering if the ball bounces the wrong way once?
4. Buccaneers: Can they run the ball?
It’s a lot to ask of even the great Tom Brady to carry a one-dimensional offense. The Buccaneers averaged 76.9 yards per game on the ground — nearly 10 yards fewer than any other team and the lowest total in the NFL since 2019.
To compensate, the 45-year-old Brady broke the NFL’s single-season record for pass attempts (733). That’s not a winning formula. Maybe the possible return of center Ryan Jensen from injury jumpstarts Leonard Fournette (3.5 yards per carry) or rookie Rachaad White (3.7).
5. Cowboys: Will head coach Mike McCarthy make a critical mistake?
McCarthy did a great job ignoring the specter of waiting-in-the-wings replacement Sean Payton during the season. But it’s hard to forget the way the Cowboys mismanaged the clock at the end of last year’s playoff loss to the 49ers, even if offensive coordinator Kellen Moore or quarterback Dak Prescott was more to blame.
McCarthy has a long history of questionable usage and non-usage of timeouts and challenges (including Week 6 this season) and making the wrong call on when to kick versus going for a fourth down.
6. Giants: Does playoff experience matter?
Seventeen of the 53 active players have playoff experience, including seven starters. Neither of those numbers is impressive, yet both are misleading. Because key players such as quarterback Daniel Jones, running back Saquon Barkley, receiver Darius Slayton, left tackle Andrew Thomas, safety Xavier McKinney and defensive linemen Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence are making their debuts. For a team that faces a talent disadvantage every game, that’s alarming. Head coach Brian Daboll called experience “overrated.”
7. Seahawks: Can they stop the run?
It will be a quick one-and-done appearance if the Seahawks don’t tweak the No. 30-ranked rushing defense (150.2 yards per game). The numbers are even worse over the last eight games (163.3) and in two losses to the 49ers (179.5). The issue is bad fundamentals and gap discipline. Oh, and the 49ers bring Christian McCaffrey and one of the most timelessly dominant outsize-zone run schemes.
AFC
1. Chiefs: Will they beat themselves?
Look no further than the inventive carousel huddle the Chiefs used last week for proof that boredom with dominating sometimes sets in. A loss of focus can lead to mistakes, and an interrupted rhythm can be hard to recapture, which happened in last year’s AFC Championship Game.
In three of seven playoff losses under head coach Andy Reid since 2013, the Chiefs have blown an 18-point (or greater) lead. The Chiefs committed 23 turnovers and were -3 in turnover differential (only the Dolphins were worse among playoff teams).
2. Bills: Can the defense get a key stop?
In the showdowns against the Chiefs in each of the past two playoffs, the answer was no. In the regular season, when Taron Jackson intercepted Patrick Mahomes in the final minute of a win, the answer was yes.
Von Miller (10.5 career playoff sacks) was signed for these next few games. Top cornerback Tre’Davious White hasn’t been the same since returning from injury, and cornerbacks Dane Jackson and rookie Kaair Elam have struggled, meaning the pressure is on the pass rush to be disruptive. The emotional wave of playing for critically injured teammate Damar Hamlin is a hard-to-judge intangible.
3. Bengals: Will the offensive line hold up?
Just because quarterback Joe Burrow proved he can survive a beating in leading the Bengals to the Super Bowl last season doesn’t mean he should keep being in that spot. The Bengals upgraded their offensive line in the offseason, but will be without right tackle La’el Collins and right guard Alex Cappa as the playoffs get underway.
Burrow was sacked 41 times — down from 51 last season, but still more than all but four other quarterbacks. He has the best trio of receivers if given time to throw.
.4. Jaguars: Is QB Trevor Lawrence about to join the elite?
This much is clear about the future of the AFC: no elite quarterback, no shot. Lawrence is supposed to be a generational prospect — more unanimously liked by draft scouts than any of his QB counterparts — though that was easy to forget after he started his career 7-22.
Lawrence played well during the Jaguars’ late surge to join the cusp of the elite conversation, but he was bad and saved by the defense in his biggest game to date — the playoff-clincher against the spiraling Titans.
5. Chargers: Which version of head coach Brandon Staley shows up?
In his first season at the helm, Staley was the most aggressive coach on fourth down in NFL history — and literally one too many risks cost the Chargers a playoff berth. In 2022, he leaned too far in the conservative direction.
After a disappointing 6-6 start, the Chargers rallied with four straight defense-fueled wins to portray Staley in a good light. Then he played starters and lost pass rusher Joey Bosa and receiver Mike Williams to injury in a meaningless Week 18 game and the questions resurfaced.
6. Ravens: Can the defense or special teams score?
Paging Ed Reed or Rod Woodson. In the five-plus games since Lamar Jackson was injured, the Ravens are averaging 12.5 points per game with Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown at quarterback. Jackson isn’t practicing this week and is unlikely to play.
The only path to victory includes a non-offensive touchdown. Since Hall of Famers Reed and Woodson are retired, the job falls to Roquan Smith, Marlon Humphrey or others on a defense with zero touchdowns this season or to returner Devin Duvernay (one).
7. Dolphins: How can Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle get involved?
The pair of speedy receivers gives the Dolphins an advantage unmatched across the league. But what good are Hill and Waddle — who combined for 3,124 yards and 16 touchdowns from scrimmage — if third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson can’t get them the ball? Maybe the offense calls for more Wildcat snaps or jet sweeps, but those won’t catch anyone napping. The Dolphins backed into the playoffs with an 11-6 win over the Jets in Thompson’s second career start, but pose little threat without Tua Tagovailoa.
Today’s back page
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⚾ HEYMAN: Where Mets could turn after Carlos Correa disappointment
QB mismatches
It’s really a testament to third-stringer Purdy and the 49ers that there aren’t three major quarterback mismatches this weekend. On the surface, Pro Bowler Geno Smith (Seahawks) against Purdy (the last pick of the 2022 draft) should be one, but it’s not in the same class as backup Huntley (Ravens) against Burrow (Bengals) and third-stringer Thompson (Dolphins) against Allen (Bills).
In honor of what looks like two unfair fights, here is a ranking of eight times the underdog quarterback beat the heavyweight favorite, with two measures of consideration: The lesser quarterback had to play well in the game (not just be a passenger), and games are viewed in hindsight, so wins such as then-unknown Mark Brunell’s over John Elway in the 1997 playoffs, for example, is less shocking now because Brunell went on to have a solid career.
1. Super Bowl XXV, Jeff Hostetler’s Giants over Jim Kelly’s Bills: Hostetler was 6-0 in his career — and coming off an upset of the 49ers’ Joe Montana — when he piloted a ball-control offense past the Bills, 20-19. Hostetler threw a touchdown pass and made his biggest play by holding onto the ball for a safety instead of a strip-sack fumble by Bruce Smith.
2. Super Bowl XXII, Doug Williams’ Washington over Elway’s Broncos: Williams was 0-2 as a starter during the season, but replaced Jay Schroeder in the second half of the regular-season finale and kept the job. Elway was MVP of the 1987 season, but Williams was Super Bowl MVP after throwing for 340 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-10 romp.
3. Super Bowl LII, Nick Foles’ Eagles over Tom Brady’s Patriots: Brady threw for a then-playoff record 505 yards and still got outdueled by MVP pick Foles, who threw three touchdowns and caught another on the “Philly Special” trick play. Foles, who replaced injured MVP candidate Carson Wentz late in the season, nearly quit football before then and returned to being a backup and third-stringer not long after.
4. 1985 AFC Championship Game, Tony Eason’s Patriots over Dan Marino’s Dolphins: The battle of first-round picks in 1983 went to Eason, who completed just 10 of 12 passes, but threw three touchdowns. Marino, who finished with 119 more regular-season wins than Eason, suffered bigger playoff losses as an underdog, but this was one of his best shots to win a Super Bowl and instead the Patriots stole a 31-14 win.
5. 2010 AFC Divisional Playoff, Mark Sanchez’s Jets over Brady’s Patriots: On this day, Sanchez wasn’t taking a back seat to the ground-and-pound offense or the “can’t wait” defense. He threw touchdown passes to three different receivers in a 28-11 victory to lead the Jets to a second straight AFC Championship Game.
6. 1987 NFC Divisional Playoff, Wade Wilson’s Vikings over Montana’s 49ers: Wilson, a journeyman backup with 36 career wins, completed 10 passes for 227 yards to Anthony Carter and 10 for 71 to everyone else in a 36-24 upset. Montana was sacked four times, and threw an interception in his worst career playoff performance.
7. 2011 AFC Wild Card, Tim Tebow’s Broncos over Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers: Tebow’s line in his final game before a trade to the Jets is wacky: 10-of-21 passing for 316 yards with two touchdowns, including a walk-off 80-yarder on the first play of a 29-23 overtime victory. The Broncos were 8-8, but hosting the defending AFC champion Steelers (12-4).
8. 2017 NFC Divisional Playoff, Case Keenum’s Vikings over Drew Brees’ Saints: Keenum earned 11 of his 29 career victories in 2017 after replacing the injured Sam Bradford. His shining moment was a 61-yard touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs to steal a 29-24 victory. Brees also was on the wrong end of an NFC Championship Game loss to the Bears’ Rex Grossman.
Woody’s wallet
Jets owner Woody Johnson said Thursday he “absolutely” is willing to spend on a veteran quarterback. No surprise there given Johnson believes in the crossover football-business value of star power at quarterback, from Brett Favre to Mark Sanchez to Tim Tebow to Michael Vick. The offensive coordinator hired to replace Mike LaFleur could tip off what direction the Jets are going to go.
The pair you should beware of…
Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and quarterback Aaron Rodgers
It’s easy to see why it’s enticing. Rodgers won two MVPs with Hackett as his Packers offensive coordinator from 2019-21, before Hackett was a disaster as Broncos head coach and Rodgers took a step back in 2022. Hackett’s father, Paul, was an often-criticized Jets offensive coordinator from 2001-04. Rodgers, 39, coming over in a trade from the Packers would echo the failed Favre trade in 2008, which wound up as Eric Mangini’s final season. In an AFC loaded with young quarterbacks, a stopgap might not be the way to go. It just feels very … been there, done that.
The pair you should want…
Offensive coordinator James Urban and quarterback Lamar Jackson
If the Ravens aren’t willing to fully guarantee Jackson’s contract extension, maybe Johnson will be. General manager Joe Douglas has the inside ties to the Ravens to jump to the top of the list if Jackson becomes available in a potential trade. The Grade 2 (borderline Grade 3) PCL sprain that Jackson suffered, according to his own statement, and is likely keeping him out of the playoffs this weekend is a concern. Urban has been Ravens quarterbacks coach for Jackson’s whole career, and the Jets would need someone with experience running the unique system created for him.
The pair you aren’t thinking of…
Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and quarterback Kirk Cousins
It’s easy to see who will be blamed if the Vikings lose their playoff opener to the Giants. The lightning-rod Cousins, who nearly picked the Jets over the Vikings in free agency in 2018, has a no-trade clause. But would he want to reunite with Kubiak, his former quarterbacks coach (2019-20) and offensive coordinator (2021)? Kubiak’s father, Gary, is one of Jets head coach Robert Saleh’s coaching mentors. Cousins only is signed through 2023, so he might want an extension, which would be tough with Saleh and Douglas on a short leash. But the salary-cap savings are there for the Vikings ($17.5 million) without a crushing number for the Jets ($30 million).
The pair you could get…
Offensive coordinator Todd Downing and quarterback Derek Carr
Carr has no reason to facilitate a trade from the Raiders given that he has a no-trade clause and roster bonuses that likely will force his release sooner than later. Why weaken the team he is headed to by making them give up assets to get him? Carr’s older brother, David, spent years in New York as Eli Manning’s backup. Downing, who was just fired by the Titans after a year in which he was arrested for a DUI, could be the kind of hire with no other options whom the Jets get stuck with because other coaches don’t want to get attached to a regime with an unspoken win-now-or-else edict.
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