Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has lashed out at Joe Biden for suggesting that a “minor incursion” by Russian forces into Ukraine might not prompt the severe response the west has threatened — a remark that has sowed confusion among the US’s closest allies.
“We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and small nations . . . just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones,” Zelensky wrote on Twitter on Thursday. “I say this as the President of a great power.”
The comments reflect the deep dismay in Ukraine at Biden’s remark, made at a White House news conference on Wednesday, that the US and its allies might struggle to agree on a united response to a Russian attack on Ukraine if it fell short of a full-scale invasion.
“I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, et cetera,” Biden said.
After the press conference the White House issued a clarification designed to play down the president’s comment.
On Thursday Biden sought to clarify his remarks further. “If any, any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border that is an invasion.” He added: “Let there be no doubt at all, if Putin makes this choice, Russia will pay a heavy price.”
It was a message reinforced by Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, who stressed after talks in Berlin that the west would respond whatever the scale of Russia’s military action against Ukraine.
“We’ve been very clear throughout that, if any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border and commit new acts of aggression, that would be met by a swift, severe, united response from the US and its allies and partners,” he said.
Blinken was in Berlin for talks with German, French and UK foreign ministers ahead of a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on Friday.
The talks come with tensions still high on the Russia-Ukraine border, where Moscow has massed more than 100,000 troops and international officials have warned of the risks of a new armed conflict in the heart of Europe. Russia denies it is planning an invasion but says it could take military action if security demands it has formulated to the west and Nato are not fulfilled. Among other things, Moscow has called on the transatlantic military alliance to pledge never to accept Ukraine as a member.
Though Biden’s comments on Wednesday were met with irritation in some western countries, they did focus attention on a significant problem facing the US, EU and Nato as they prepare a response to possible Russian aggression against Ukraine — what scale of hostile action should trigger wide-ranging sanctions.
EU member states are debating whether cyber attacks or a “false-flag” operation on Ukraine should meet the threshold for massive sanctions against Moscow, or whether these should be unleashed only in the event of a full invasion.
Blinken acknowledged the problem, saying that Russia had many “tools in its playbook” and had a number of alternatives to a full-scale incursion such as paramilitary strikes and acts of hybrid warfare.
“In each of those scenarios we’re working very closely together to make sure that we effectively define our co-ordinated response.”
Emmanuel Macron, French president, added to the confusion on Wednesday by urging EU states to conduct their own dialogue with Russia.
“These next few weeks should lead us to bring to fruition a European proposal building a new order of security and stability,” he told the European parliament. “We must build it between Europeans, then share it with our allies within the framework of Nato. And then propose it for negotiation to Russia.”
French officials later insisted the proposal was not in opposition to the continuing US negotiations with Russia. “That’s about nourishing a collective, united transatlantic path of dialogue in which the Europeans take responsibility and take their place fully with their Nato allies on an issue that directly concerns their own security,” French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said in a statement after the meeting with Blinken in Berlin.
Le Drian added: “On security matters affecting Europe, it’s normal that Europeans consult together and that there continues to be close co-operation with our allies and partners, because nothing that concerns European security can be discussed and decided without the full involvement of Europeans.”
France also said it stood ready to continue its support for Nato’s reinforced presence in the Baltic states, and was prepared to carry out new missions in Romania in accordance with Nato decisions.
Blinken denied that the west was split over how to deal with the Russian threat. He said the consultations the US had held in recent weeks with allies were designed “to ensure that we are speaking and acting together with one voice” when it comes to Russia.
He also suggested that Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline Russia had built under the Baltic Sea, could be used by Germany to deter Moscow from an invasion of Ukraine. “Gas is not flowing through Nord Stream 2 yet,” Blinken said. “It means the pipeline is leverage for Germany, the US and our allies, not Russia.”
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