The sweet sounds of pads crashing into pads, the sound of cleat striking ball, the roar of the crowd. Yes, at long last, the NFL is back.
After a couple of months of drafting fantasy teams in preparation for the joyous return of our favorite game, we now enthusiastically build our first daily lineups for Week 1.
As is always the case when trying to win big bucks in large tournaments, you aren’t just looking for top performers, you’re looking for some who are not among the most popular, and you’ll need a couple of cheap options.
First we pick our favorite (highest-projected-scoring) game of the week, and we like Raiders-Chargers. Derek Carr ($5,900) is nearly $2,000 cheaper than Justin Herbert ($7,600) at DraftKings ($50,000 cap), so we take Carr. As much as we like Davante Adams, at $8,100, in his first game in the offense, we’ll pass and instead pair Carr with Hunter Renfrow ($5,800).
We want a receiver on the opposite side of this matchup, so we’ll take the small discount we get with Mike Williams ($6,600) over Keenan Allen ($7,000).
Now we turn to other positions. Though we are eager to play guys such as Christian McCaffrey ($8,500), Alvin Kamara ($7,600) and Saquon Barkley ($6,100) — since their value is reasonable considering their upside, and they are currently healthy, and remaining that way is no guarantee — we can’t fit all of them into lineups.
Barkley’s price makes him one of our favorite play of the week. We expect feature-back volume from Texans RB Dameon Pierce, which at $4,800 is reason enough for us to ignore the fact he plays on an awful offense.
We don’t want too much exposure to the Colts-Texans, considering the relatively low expected offense, but Michael Pittman Jr. at $5,500 is too good to pass up. We get the cheapest tight end we actually like, David Njoku ($3,900), which leaves us with just the Flex and DST.
In order to afford McCaffrey (we’re not worried about a shin issue he practiced through last this week), that means we have to go with the Lions defense/special teams ($2,000). Or we could use Kamara with the Dolphins ($2,600) or Commanders ($2,500). As much as we like Kamara, he is more dependent on his surrounding offense than CMC, plus his upside isn’t quite as high, and he has a lower floor. So CMC it is.
We’ll diversify in others lineups, but we also are going to build a FanDuel ($60,000 cap) in the same spirit. Pricing is a bit looser there, and with half-point instead of full PPR, we make Derrick Henry (9,700) a priority.
We’ll shake it up a little, with Mecole Hardman (5,400) at WR to give us exposure to the Chiefs-Cardinals, and Pat Freiermuth (5,300) at tight end. And we’ll lean into possible early struggles for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers by using the Minnesota defense ($3,200).
That leaves us with Carr ($7,400), CMC ($9,500), Barkley ($6,800), Williams ($6,600), Renfrow ($5,900), Hardman, Freiermuth, Henry and the Vikings DST.
Now let’s kick off this season by winning some coin.
Big Weeks
Antonio Gibson RB, Commanders, vs. Jaguars (FanDuel $6,800/DraftKings $5,800)
With Brian Robinson sadly sidelined after being shot in an attempted robbery, Gibson has less competition for carries — particularly any goal-line work.
Eli Mitchell RB, 49ers, at Bears (FD $6,700/DK $5,400)
His draft stock was pushed down while nursing a sore hamstring, but Mitchell is not listed on the injury report. Expect a full workload as the Niners keep the training wheels on new starting QB Trey Lance.
Raheem Mostert RB, Dolphins, vs. Patriots (FD $5,500/DK $4,800)
When healthy, he has a history of strong production. Use him while you can, before he gets hurt. The Pats’ D isn’t the scary unit is used to be.
A.J. Green WR, Cardinals, vs. Chiefs (FD $5,700/DK $4,600)
With no DeAndre Hopkins, no Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore nursing a sore hammy and Marquise Brown brand new to the offense, don’t be surprised if Green gets a surprising number of targets.
Small Weaks
David Montgomery RB, Bears, vs. 49ers (FD $6,600/DK $6,000)
As we saw with Cam Akers and Devin Singletary on Thursday, muddy backfields can be messy for fantasy. We’re not convinced Khalil Herbert won’t steal a larger share of carries than expected, and the matchup vs. San Fran is stiff.
Breece Hall RB, Jets, vs. Ravens (FD $6,400/DK $5,500)
See above: re Michael Carter. Particularly early this season, wait for Hall to play his way into the feature role before using him regularly.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB, Chiefs, at Cardinals (FD $5,800/DK $5,400)
A little more of a clear-cut favorite than the previously mentioned, but we still fear Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco and even Ronald Jones at the goal line. Plus, CEH just might not be very good.
Chris Godwin WR, Buccaneers, at Cowboys (FD $7,000/DK $6,500)
Even if he plays (he’s a game-time decision following 2021 ACL and MCL tears), don’t expect him to be the Godwin you know. We are willing to wait until he burns us on the bench before starting.
DK Metcalf WR, Seahawks, vs. Broncos (FD $6,900/DK $6,200)
He is one of the most physically gifted WRs in the league, but we saw how limited he could be with a bad offense last season, even with Russell Wilson. Geno Smith is a downgrade from that, with a similarly subpar surrounding cast.
Fantasy Insanity Daily Duel
Site: DraftKings
Slate: Sun. main (13 games)
Type: $5 tourney
Top prize: $1M
Pot: $5M
Drew’s Crew
QB — Derek Carr (LV, at LAC) $5,900
RB — Saquon Barkley (NYG, at Ten) $6,100
RB — Dameon Pierce (Hou, vs. Ind) $4,800
WR — Mike Williams (LAC, vs. LV) $6,600
WR — Hunter Renfrow (LV, at LAC) $5,800
WR — Michael Pittman Jr. (Ind, at Hou) $5,500
TE — David Njoku (Cle, at Car) $3,900
Flex — Christian McCaffrey (Car, vs. Cle) $8,500
DST: Lions (Det, vs. Phi) $2,000
Wilk’s Warriors
QB — Matt Ryan (Ind, at Hou) $5,500
RB — Austin Ekeler (LAC, vs. LV) $8,200
RB — Alvin Kamara (NO , at Atl) $7,600
WR — Marquise Brown (Ari, vs. KC) $6,200
WR — Michael Pittman (Ind, at Hou) $5,550
WR — Sammy Watkins (GB, at Min) $4,700
TE — Austin Hooper (Ten, vs. NYG) $3,900
Flex — Christian Kirk (Jac, at Was) $5,100
DEF — Panthers (Car, vs. Cle) $3,400
2022 season risked: $5
2021 yield: Jarad -$55, Drew -$140
Credit: Source link
