Week 7 NFL odds, best bets, picks

Our NFL betting expert offers best betting predictions and picks for Sunday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, live on CBS at 4:15 p.m. ET.

Carolina Panthers star Christian McCaffrey was dealt to the San Francisco 49ers Thursday in a late-night stunner. It remains to be seen if he’ll suit up for the Niners on Sunday when they host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Chiefs vs. 49ers picks

Chiefs vs 49ers prediction and analysis

The 49ers (3-3) were three-point home underdogs earlier in the week, but as of Friday morning that spread shortened to +2. San Francisco, a run-heavy team with a stable of OK backs, no doubt will improve by feeding the dynamic McCaffrey the ball. The question is whether McCaffrey will be ready by Sunday to play for his new team on the other side of the country. After a one-sided loss to the Atlanta Falcons, the Niners sure could use him.

The Chiefs (4-2) are also coming off a loss, but a more understandable one, as the Buffalo Bills won the latest installment of the new best rivalry in football, 24-20. Mahomes threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns but also tossed two interceptions. They’re still one of the three or four best teams in football, but the Chiefs can’t afford more early-season losses if they’d like to keep pace with Buffalo in the AFC.

Chiefs moneyline -135

McCaffrey has faced the Chiefs once in his career when, between injuries in 2020, he ran 18 times for 69 yards and a touchdown and caught 10 passes for 82 yards and another touchdown.

Is that alone enough to move a spread by a whole point, especially with the uncertainty over whether he’ll overcome the logistical obstacles to be able to play?

It does help that the 49ers keep the ball on the ground. After Jeff Wilson Jr., their second-leading rusher is WR Deebo Samuel, who said he doesn’t like being the dual threat. Their third-leading rusher is injured quarterback Trey Lance. There’s clearly room for improvement.

But the Chiefs have the fourth-best rushing defense in the league, in part because they’re much more easily exploitable over the top in their below-average secondary. Whether CMC is in 49ers gear Sunday, we aren’t betting on Jimmy Garoppolo to make the throws necessary to outduel Mahomes.

Bonus: The 49ers have owned one of the league’s better defenses for years now, but Mahomes is 2-0 against them, including, of course, Super Bowl LIV.

Pick: Chiefs to win outright @ -135 with Caesars Sportsbook.

Under 48.5 total points

Just one of the 49ers’ past nine games, counting the regular season and playoffs, saw the over hit. That came in Week 5 against the Panthers, who are shaping up to be the worst team in football, meaning the 49ers’ 37-15 win can be called an aberration.

This is one of those teams you can count on to win games with defense and running the football. In other words, a recipe for the under.

The Chiefs no doubt have the ability to run up the score, but they’re a balanced 3-3 in the O/U column this year. When Mahomes doesn’t take as much care with the ball as he should, it’s going to lead to picks and abandoned drives that could have resulted in points.

The Niners have grabbed five interceptions this year while leading the league in total defense and ranking second in passing defense. Even if Mahomes had their number a couple of Super Bowls ago, we aren’t expecting either team to hit the 30s this time around. Even a 28-20 final score would make your “under” pick a winning ticket.

Pick: Under 48.5 points scored @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook.

Harrison Butker over 7.5 points

Let’s do something a little different and talk kickers. The Chiefs certainly don’t mind having Harrison Butker back after an injury to his left (plant) ankle caused them to use Matt Ammendola and Matthew Wright for a spell. Even safety Justin Reid made an extra point for them.

Butker returned last week and split the uprights from 62 yards like it was no big deal. We have to assume that ankle is feeling better.

The 49ers allow 14.8 points per game, second-fewest in the league only to Buffalo, whom Kansas City faced last week. You don’t get many opportunities to score touchdowns on a defense like that, so beating San Francisco could come down to making field goals early often.

Butker finished with eight points last week and needs just eight for this over to hit. That’s two field goals and two PATs, or three field goals to easily hit nine. He can be a weapon from a great distance out, and on top of that, the weather forecast Sunday in Santa Clara is clear and sunny.

Pick: Chiefs K Harrison Butker to score over 7.5 points @ -111 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Chiefs vs. 49ers odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.