The Braves have not had the most star-studded offseason. They have not made the flashiest moves. They have not indulged in a substantial free-agent signing.
Yet no team has had as fascinating, or as transaction-heavy, an offseason as the Braves, who — among other items — have made nine trades, extended the contracts of two potential free-agent relievers, signed another free-agent reliever to a three-year contract to try to become a starter again and assumed roughly $20 million in dead money for 2024 to gain access to players they wanted — namely, Jarred Kelenic.
The moves don’t come without risk, considering their three main acquisitions this offseason — Kelenic, Aaron Bummer and Chris Sale — arrive with questions about injury and/or underperformance and/or maturity.
But the Braves are better positioned than most to assume risk because they are not overly beholden to it. Their roster will return its top 12 players in Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference) from a 104-win team. That includes eight position players — everything but a left fielder, the role which Kelenic will be asked to play and potentially bat ninth.
Also, the risk is mitigated because under general manager Alex Anthoupolos, the Braves have stuck to a disciplined policy to spread money around to enhance depth and decrease risk.
The Braves, based on data from Spotrac, currently project to have the second-largest 2024 payroll for luxury-tax purposes behind the Mets, yet do not possess one toxic contract. The Braves might, for example, rather be spending Marcell Ozuna’s $16 million 2024 salary elsewhere, but Ozuna did hit 40 homers last season with a .905 OPS, and even if he came crashing down in the coming season, it is the last year of his current contract.
The luxury-tax payroll is based on average annual value of a team’s contracts, and while being No. 2 in current payroll projections at $282.6 million, the Braves’ top current contract in average value, the $21.2 million of third baseman Austin Riley, ranks 42nd in the majors — and will likely fall lower as free agents such as Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger sign in the coming weeks.
What were the goals this offseason for a Braves team that will try to win a seventh straight NL East crown in 2024?
1. They wanted to add a pitcher they believed could start a postseason game. Their first choice was Aaron Nola. But Atlanta learned quickly in the process that Nola’s preference was to remain with the Phillies if they were willing to make a competitive or better offer — and they did, retaining him with a seven-year, $172 million deal.
Atlanta checked on free agent Sonny Gray and on Tyler Glasnow in trade talks with Tampa Bay. But the Braves never made an offer to Gray, and the Dodgers were always the more likely landing spot for Glasnow, in part because returning to his Los Angeles roots made doing an extension as part of a trade with the Dodgers more possible.
The Braves were very interested in the White Sox’s Dylan Cease. But the asking price was too steep as Atlanta did not feel comfortable that it could surrender that depth of quality prospect when promotions of players such as Michael Harris and Spencer Strider, and trades for players such as Matt Olson and Sean Murphy, had left the prospect coffers thinner. Cease remains one of the more likely players to get traded this offseason and might be a candidate for the Yankees after they failed to land Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Sale is an imperfect fallback. He has made just 31 combined starts over the past four injury-heavy seasons. But he continued to be an elite strikeout pitcher in that time (32.1 percent). He turns 35 in March. Can the Braves get 20 regular-season starts out of him and have him upright in October to join Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton as part of the four-man postseason rotation?
Bryce Elder, a 2023 All-Star who faded in the second half, and Reynaldo Lopez are in the fifth-starter competition. Lopez was the reliever the Braves signed to a contract (three years at $30 million) believing he had the stuff to transition back to the rotation. If he does, Elder is optionable. If he doesn’t, Lopez makes a deep pen even deeper. Huascar Ynoa and Ian Anderson are both expected back from Tommy John surgery during the 2024 campaign — Ynoa perhaps a candidate early in the season. Plus, Atlanta has belief in prospect AJ Smith-Shawver.
Sale is due $27.5 million this year, but the Red Sox ate $17.5 million of that to facilitate a deal. Nevertheless, Boston told teams it was not interested in a pure salary dump here.
And they did get back Vaughn Grissom, who did not have a clear path to playing time with Atlanta, but gives the Red Sox the potential of a Howie Kendrick-esque bat-to-ball-skill/dubious defense second baseman with six years of control.
Sale also has a $20 million 2025 team option that Atlanta could pick up if this all goes well.
2. The Braves wanted to deepen the bullpen, particularly with lefty options. When Atlanta won the 2021 World Series, it leaned heavily on a four-piece Night Shift pen that included three lefties: Tyler Matzek, A.J. Minter and Will Smith. Last season, the club pretty much was down to Minter and ended up overusing him.
Minter is back for his walk year, and Matzek should return from Tommy John surgery. The Braves also like Dylan Lee. Still, they added two lefties, via trades, in Bummer and Ray Kerr.
Atlanta had tried to acquire Bummer at the 2023 trade deadline. He pitched to a 6.79 ERA last season with the White Sox and has $5.5 million coming his way in 2024, plus 2025-26 club options available. Bummer’s peripheral numbers have remained strong, especially his ability to elicit groundballs. And he mainly cost Atlanta depth pieces that did not fit the Braves’ roster and/or payroll.
Atlanta also essentially bought Kerr from the Padres with its willingness to take on $4 million of Matt Carpenter’s contract. Carpenter was quickly released, and what the Braves owe will drop to $3.26 million when (if?) Carpenter gets the MLB minimum when he signs elsewhere. For the Braves, Kerr was worth that investment because he has an out-pitch curve, still can be optioned this year and has six years of control.
Underlying the moves is the Braves’ belief that they will have to get through the Phillies’ lefty hitters (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber) and/or the Dodgers’ (Freddie Freeman/Shohei Ohtani) in October, so Antonopoulos wanted to give manager Brian Snitker the potential to begin matching up early in the game, if it was needed.
By extending righties Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson to be with closer Raisel Iglesias plus the lefties, Atlanta projects to have one of the better relief groups in the majors.
3. The Braves wanted to take a shot at stabilizing left field. Eddie Rosario had a nice season with 21 homers and a league-average OPS. Still, Atlanta did not pick up his $9 million 2024 option. Acquiring Kelenic to fill the role brought a jigsaw-puzzle quality to the team’s maneuvering this offseason.
To land Kelenic from Seattle, the Braves took on $17 million owed Evan White and $12 million owed Marco Gonzales, though the Mariners offset it some by sending $4.5 million to the Braves. The Braves then flipped Gonzales to the Pirates, but still took on more than $9 million of what the lefty was owed. The Braves also moved White to the Angels and took back Max Stassi ($7.5 million owed) and David Fletcher (two years at $14 million owed). They subsequently moved Stassi to the White Sox, while eating most of the contract.
The current accounting has the Braves paying more than $19 million for Gonzales, Stassi and Carpenter not to play for them. They also owe Fletcher two years at $14 million — but perhaps Atlanta can justify that because Fletcher shares a profile similar to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who just signed a two-year, $15 million contact with the Blue Jays.
Kelenic is super-talented. But he also strikes out way too much, at 30.7 percent for his career. Plus, he self-inflicted a broken foot by kicking a water cooler last season, forcing him to miss two months for a Seattle club that barely missed the playoffs. By using him as the enticement to get out of bad contracts, the Mariners clearly showed they were pretty much fed up with Kelenic.
In Seattle, because he was the centerpiece of the trade with the Mets for Edwin Diaz, Kelenic was expected to be a middle-of-the-lineup force. The Braves are going to try to ask less and get more. Kelenic is still just 24 and was the sixth pick of the 2018 draft. He is not even arbitration-eligible yet. Atlanta was willing to take basically a $20 million 2024 gamble that he is a highly productive player and see whether, in a better, less stressful environment, he settles in (he does have five years of control).
The Braves, who have had a revolving door in left field, see Kelenic as a potential solution, joining an outfield with Harris and Ronald Acuña Jr., who turned 26 last month and is the oldest of the trio.
The Braves also were looking for lefty balance in their lineup. They have Olson, Harris and switch-hitter Ozzie Albies, who is traditionally better from the right side.
If this doesn’t work with Kelenic, the Braves will be in a more problematic position. Their one current soft spot is bench depth, notably in the outfield. But that is usually the easiest area to address in-season — if Atlanta even waits for the season to address it. Remember that Anthopoulos obtained Rosario, Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler during the 2021 season and all ended up being key contributors to their championship.
That is what should be remembered here amid all the head-scratching and movement.
The Braves have been superb at assembling rosters during this recent stretch of excellence. More than most organizations, they deserve the benefit of the doubt for now as they went through a lot of transactional and financial maneuvering to basically add Bummer, Kelenic, Kerr and Sale to their roster.
Free-agent deep dive
Hector Neris is a durable and dependable reliever who remains in the marketplace. If he could be had for a good one- or two-year deal, the Mets and maybe even the Yankees should consider him. For the Mets, he likely would be the eighth-inning setup man while offering some closer insurance for Diaz.
In all but one season of his career (2018 with the Phillies), Neris posted an ERA-plus of league average or better.
When it comes to sturdiness, he particularly stands out, pitching in 70 games in each of his past three seasons and five times in his career. No pitcher has appeared in more games over the last five seasons (307) than Neris, who turns 35 in June.
He has been a key member of the Astros the past two seasons, including as part of the late-game brigade that helped bring a championship in 2022. Neris does not throw his split-finger as much as he once did, but it remains a high-end pitch.
What is the downside?
Well, at some point the warranty comes off a reliever who has his high-usage track record.
Neris had a career-best 1.71 ERA last season. But baked into that was a .219 batting average against on balls in play, which is not sustainable — there was some luck in his excellence. Especially because his walk percentage (11.4) was the second-highest of his career and his groundball rate fell to 31.8 percent, nearly a career low.
Neris turned down an $8.5 million option with the Astros for 2024. So obviously he is looking to do better than that. He is not truly a 1.71 ERA pitcher. But he is reliable and above-average. And he can be part of a late-game cohort on a contender.
Roster stuff maybe only I notice
After a short hiatus, we return to a reverse-order countdown of what teams would be best if every player from last season were returned to his original team. We will count down three more, beginning with the No. 19 Angels.
This version of the Angels and the actual one through last year share the same quality — there is Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and then just not a lot of excellence (or even very good) beyond that.
Billy Eppler’s draft history from 2016-20 looks a bit better with some perspective, but Kyle Bradish and Brandon Marsh blossomed elsewhere — Bradish as part of a regrettable trade to Baltimore for Dylan Bundy.
The best of the Angels originals:
C: Martin Maldonado
1B: Nolan Schanuel
2B: David Fletcher
SS: Zach Neto
3B: Jean Segura
LF: Taylor Ward
CF: Trout
RF: Marsh
DH: Ohtani
Bench: C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Michael Stefanic, Matt Thaiss
Rotation: Bradish, Ohtani, Griffin Canning, Mike Clevinger, Patrick Corbin, Reid Detmers
Closer: Will Smith
Bullpen: Yency Almonte, Jaime Barria, Ryan Brasier, Keynan Middleton, Jose Soriano, Andrew Wantz
At No. 18, we have the Pirates, and in the team listed below, you will see a reflection of why Pittsburgh has not made the playoffs since 2015 and has the second-worst record in the majors over the past five seasons.
When they have had good players they have felt compelled to trade, they have just not made good deals when sending out Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Clay Holmes, Starling Marte and Jameson Taillon. And despite persistent high-first-round draft picks, they just have not developed much impact.
Pittsburgh tied Cleveland for having the most of its original players make debuts in 2023 at 14. One was Henry Davis, the first overall pick in 2021. He was so bad (a minus-1.4 Baseball Reference WAR) that he did not even make the original Pirates squad:
C: Elias Diaz
1B: Josh Bell
2B: Adam Frazier
SS: Kevin Newman
3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes
LF: Connor Joe
CF: Ji Hwan Bae
RF: Marte
DH: Harold Ramirez
Bench: Andrew McCutchen, Reese McGuire, Pablo Reyes, Jared Triolo
Rotation: Cole, Glasnow, Taillon, Osvaldo Bido, Mitch Keller
Closer: Holmes
Bullpen: Cody Bolton, Yerry De Los Santos, Joe Jacques, Nick Mears, Carmen Mlodzinski, Luis Ortiz, Justin Topa
The only team to have a worse record than the Pirates over the last five years is the Royals, who come in at No. 17.
Like Pittsburgh, the high draft picks, beyond Bobby Witt Jr., just have not netted enough. The team:
C: Salvador Perez
1B: Ryan O’Hearn
2B: Michael Massey
SS: Witt
3B: Maikel Garcia
LF: Esteury Ruiz
CF: Kyle Isbel
RF: Whit Merrifield
DH: Vinnie Pasquantino
Bench: Freddy Fermin, Nicky Lopez, MJ Melendez, Emmanuel Rivera
Rotation: Zack Greinke, Daniel Lynch, Sean Manaea, Brady Singer, Matt Strahm
Closer: Jason Adam
Bullpen: Scott Alexander, Fernando Cruz, Robert Garcia, Carlos Hernandez, Tim Hill, Jacob Junis, Yunior Marte
Because it is my column
This is a new item I will work in now and then when it moves me “because it is my column,” and every once in a while, I might want to throw something out that has nothing to do with baseball.
So this might be a good time to go grab something in the fridge unless you want to read my Giants/Knicks analogy. Got you, didn’t I?
OK, it is not exactly apples to apples, but I thought the two teams had some similar qualities last season. They both had uplifting regular seasons, won a round of the playoffs to elevate the belief they were on the right track and then reality set in against a team that was good enough to get to the finals (Eagles/Heat). Then further reality set in this season that the rosters were just not good enough to beat the best teams. In the Giants’ case, teams in their division such as the Eagles and Cowboys. In the Knicks case, teams in their conference such as the Bucks and Celtics.
I think at the heart of the problem was both teams had high-first-round draft picks in 2019. Both used them on a player out of Duke — Daniel Jones for the Giants and RJ Barrett for the Knicks.
Both of those players showed flashes, especially last season, that kept the optimism going that there was another level they could hit. But ultimately it played out more as a tease. Neither was going to get to that ceiling, at least not in New York. And, therefore, the ceiling of both New York teams has been limited.
The Knicks finally accepted that reality by including Barrett in the OG Anunoby trade. I assume that come the NFL Draft, the Giants will accept the Jones reality, too, and pick a quarterback.
Because among the worst lies any organization can tell is to itself by overrating its players.
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