CLEVELAND — What follows is Monday-morning quarterbacking tinged with 20/20 hindsight with a nice dollop of “I told you so.”
Though, personally, I did not tell the Yankees so in the 2018-19 offseason. I thought it was reasonable that they passed on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, and they did go on to win 103 games and the AL East in 2019. One of their modest free-agent signings, DJ LeMahieu, outplayed both Harper and Machado.
But as the 2022 playoffs proceed and Harper, with the Phillies, and Machado, with the Padres, have been central to upstart postseason runs to the NLCS, it does trigger reflection. On what was. And on what could have been.
You may recall the Yankees, who are now on the brink of elimination, lowered their payroll from 2016 to 2017 and again from 2017 to 2018 — both times falling beneath the first luxury-tax threshold. It was believed they were prepping for an anticipated galactic free-agent class. But that group did not have quite as much luster as expected when the bidding arrived.
Tragically, Jose Fernandez died in a boating accident in late September 2016. Charlie Blackmon, Clayton Kershaw and Jean Segura signed extensions. Injury diminished the values of Josh Donaldson and Matt Harvey, among others.
Still, Harper and Machado — the jewels of that class — remained, and in the years-long lead-up it felt impossible that the Yankees would not sign one. What made them so attractive, beyond their talent and starpower, was that they were younger (Machado by three months and Harper by six) than Aaron Judge, who still wasn’t even arbitration eligible.
But the Yankees had reservations. They worried about the maturity of both players. The previous offseason, after being spurned by Shohei Ohtani, the Yankees took on the 10 years left of Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325 million deal. By having the Marlins eat $30 million and take Starlin Castro, however, the addition was just $13.4 million toward the 2018 luxury tax of $197 million, which Hal Steinbrenner had vowed to stay under. There were those in the organization who saw that as a year-early maneuver: obtaining the reigning NL MVP now to avoid dealing with Harper and Machado 12 months later.
Steinbrenner authorized going over the tax in 2019, but OK’d a play to diversify by re-signing Zack Britton, J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia, signing LeMahieu and trading for James Paxton. It is one thing to exceed the threshold and another to go over in a way intolerable to Steinbrenner, which signing Harper or Machado would have necessitated.
The Yankees never seriously considered Harper, who was being sold as the LeBron James of baseball by his agent, Scott Boras. At the winter meetings that offseason, general manager Brian Cashman told reporters: “I’m surprised you’re still asking [about outfielders]. At no time have I said I’m looking for an outfielder.”
Cashman cited the outfield depth of Judge, Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks. That February, the Yankees extended Hicks’ deal for seven years at $70 million (lengthened to lower the impact annually on the luxury tax), believing they were securing one of the majors’ best outfielders at a bargain. Ellsbury never played another major league game after 2017.
Steinbrenner also was imagining the paydays looming for Judge, Miguel Andujar, Dellin Betances, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino and Gleyber Torres.
Andujar, the Yankees third baseman, had just finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting to Ohtani. Torres had placed third. Didi Gregorius was going to miss half a season after Tommy John surgery. But the Yankees felt they could patch for that period with Torres and minimum-wage pickup Troy Tulowitzki. Why sign Machado to play half a season at shortstop and then move him to third to displace Andujar, though Andujar’s defense already was an internal concern?
So Machado signed for 10 years at $300 million with the Padres. Harper signed for 13 years at $330 million with the Phillies.
Andujar was injured early in the 2019 season, but was replaced splendidly by Gio Urshela. Tulowitzki was a bust, but the Yankees still made the playoffs that year and every year since without Harper and Machado.
San Diego, with Machado, made the expanded postseason in the shortened 2020 season, but only returned again this year as a wild card during a mostly disappointing campaign. Harper’s Phillies finally made the playoffs this year.
You can go through all kinds of gymnastics about what could or would have happened. For example, would the Yankees have signed Gerrit Cole if they had Stanton and either Harper or Machado? Would the Yankees have won more or less with that duo?
What is apparent is that both are currently worth their contracts. Harper was fourth in the majors in OPS-plus from 2019-22 (minimum 1,500 plate appearances) and won the NL MVP last year. Machado was 12th in OPS-plus, one of the majors’ best defenders and might win the NL MVP this year.
Would one or the other have provided the Yankees leverage or cover for Judge’s free agency? Think about all those whom the Yankees were banking on, such as Frazier and Hicks, Andujar and Sanchez, Betances and Tulowitzki. Heck. in the 2018-19 offseason they were wondering about a first-base competition between Greg Bird and Luke Voit.
The Yankees nevertheless have a .664 winning percentage since spurning Harper and Machado, third best in that time. The only question — one with an unknowable answer — is whether Harper or Machado would have brought a championship.
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